"Crime without a name" is what Putin is doing - How famine games will destabilize Europe and the world

Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin, 2022 / Photo: EPA-EFE / SERGEI GUNEYEV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL / POOL

Prior to the Russian invasion, Ukraine was considered a world granary. At that time, it exported 4,5 million tons of cereals through its ports - 12 percent of the world's wheat, 15 percent of the corn and half of the sunflower oil. But now Russian warships have cut off key ports such as Odessa, Chernomorsk and the rest of the world, so that supplies can only travel through overcrowded land, less efficient routes.

"People around the world are paying the price for this war," said Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solski, referring to the disruption of the global food supply due to the Russian invasion.

Former German Ambassador to Moscow Diriger Fritz on Monday accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of knowingly intending to cause famine in the Middle East and Africa in order to destabilize Europe with a huge wave of refugees. He told the Tagesspiegel that Putin's calculation was that after the grain supply was cut off, famine would force people to go to Europe and that Russia would therefore block Ukrainian exports and bomb silos.

"It's a new way of hybrid warfare," Fritz said.

German Agriculture Minister Cem Ozdemir accused Russia earlier this month of stealing grain in eastern Ukraine, while the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said Moscow was trying to sell part of stolen grain on the global market, citing official estimates that Russia may have stolen 400.000. -500.000 metric tons of grain worth over $ 100 million.

"This is a particularly disgusting form of war waged by Russia… Russia has been stealing, looting, taking grain from eastern Ukraine," Ozdemir said.

According to the German government, Russia is blocking the export of 20 million tons of cereals destined for North Africa and Asia, most of which are in the port of Odessa. Last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also accused Russia of using food as a weapon in Ukraine.

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Wheat / Photo: MIA

The global food crisis

The war in Ukraine has already caused a jump in global prices for cereals, cooking oils, fuels and fertilizers, according to Reuters, while the UN has warned that a Russian invasion could trigger a global food crisis, urging Moscow to release Ukrainian grain. The UN Secretary-General said last Wednesday that years of mass starvation would follow if the growing global food crisis was not resolved, Wionews.com reported.

The war in Ukraine has led to huge global food insecurity, a crisis that has already hit countries due to rising temperatures and the coronavirus pandemic.

"Now the war in Ukraine is intensifying and accelerating all these factors - climate change, disease and inequality," Guterres said, adding that "it threatens to push tens of millions across the edge of food insecurity, followed by malnutrition and mass starvation, a crisis that it can take years. "

An estimated 44 million people in 38 countries are on the brink of starvation. According to Theconversation.com, most of them are in for just one economic shock from the catastrophe, such as the potential 37% increase in food prices now predicted by the World Bank.

Russian denial

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that "Russia is not a source of threat of global hunger," stressing that the situation was due to sanctions.

- Russia has always been a reliable exporter of grain, just like Ukraine. The Russian side does not forbid Ukraine to export grain by rail to Poland. "The weapons come from there and no one prevents them from exporting wheat in the same way," Peskov said.

Meanwhile, the Vice President of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, assessed that Russia has all the possibilities to prevent food crises.

"He has not yet reaped the harvest through TV and the Internet. "It requires fields and agricultural equipment, fertilizer and hands accustomed to sowing bread, not signing stupid decisions," Medvedev said in a Telegram post.

"Crime without a name"

While Russia has been accused of war crimes during the invasion of Ukraine, medieval sieges of cities and parts of cities, after almost three months of siege of the steel plant in Mariupol - now after cutting off Ukrainian ports from the world that disrupted supply chains, blames for a new species "Fighting hunger", which the portal Theconversation.com described as "Crime without a name".

Stating "The Hunger Games" "Global hunger is not ruled out," economist Michael Santi told Luxuo.com, "but the worst impact of sanctions on Russia has not yet been felt - neither by us nor by us." “.

Russia is aware that the most effective economic damage lies in targeting export routes by land and sea. More than 70 percent of Ukraine's exports - including 99 percent of its corn - are exported. On the first day of the invasion, it suspended the movement of merchant ships in the Sea of ​​Azov "until further notice" and in March blocked Ukraine's Black Sea coast, cutting off the attacked country from international maritime trade, which, according to the World Trade Organization, account for more than 80 percent of world trade volume.

Ukrainian grain is stolen / Photo: Maxar Technologies

Dozens of different ships are stranded in Ukrainian ports as rising shipping prices and insurance rates push merchant ships to safer locations.

Collateral damage

Using hunger as a weapon of war is nothing new. The Geneva Conventions banned the starvation of civilians as a method of warfare. Maritime blockades, designed to deprive the population of basic food for survival, are also illegal. In 2018, the UN Security Council reaffirmed a ban on the use of hunger as a weapon of war - including for Russia.

The problem, however, is that these rules are aimed at protecting civilians in war zones, but not outside them. They are not designed to prevent collateral damage to distant non-conflict populations.

What is Europe planning?

The European Commission (EC) has offered assistance to Ukraine in the export of its wheat and other cereals, in order to circumvent the Russian blockade of the Black Sea ports, which prevents key reserves from reaching other parts of the world.

"Twenty million tonnes of grain must leave Ukraine in less than three months, so it is necessary to coordinate and optimize logistics chains, set up new routes and avoid obstacles as much as possible," said Adina Valean, European Commissioner for transport, reported Scmp.com.

The potential loss of grain stocks that Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia rely on has increased the risk of global food shortages and political instability in countries where many have not received enough. Food prices have risen due to the invasion, with high prices for fertilizers whose largest exporter is Russia, as well as cooking oils, which has further put pressure on the global food chain.

Mariupol / Photo: EPA

To supply the world with Ukrainian food, Europe wants to increase deliveries by rail and truck. The railways have already proved crucial in the invasion of Ukraine. Trains have begun transporting grain to Austria and Germany via other European Union countries, but that is only a small part of the capacity of Black Sea ports. One of the key challenges is the different width of the tracks between Ukraine and the EU countries, due to which the goods have to be transferred to trucks or wagons adapted to another system.

The EU says the average waiting time for thousands of wagons on the Ukrainian border with the 27-member bloc is 16 days, and in some places up to 30. To address the stalemate, the EC said "the most urgent priority" is to provide additional transport cereal vehicles to European ports.

Grain trailers, containers, boats and vessels are urgently needed, the EC said. Given that civilian flights have landed in Ukraine due to the invasion, new supply routes should be organized mainly by land and river transport, including, for example, the Ukrainian ports on the Danube.

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