No one doubts that Russia has strong influence in the Balkans, but security experts warn that it cannot pursue its interests without domestic, local supporters, both public and covert, of its policies.

"Moscow has the only benefit from the instability between Bulgaria and North Macedonia". "Tensions between the two countries are caused by individuals and groups who are against Macedonian European integration and NATO membership." "The provocations come from countries that are not part of the EU and from centers from third countries that have historically had an interest in this region not being in NATO and the EU and having frozen conflicts." "Macedonians were the first to say that Russia was involved in spoiling relations with Sofia." These are just some of the comments and conclusions in both Bulgaria and Macedonia regarding Russia's influence in the Western Balkans.

Last year, the Bulgarian special services even described attempts by Russia to influence the processes in the Western Balkans and to "take over" the Bulgarian communities outside the borders of the country, and the Russian intelligence networks in the Balkans became more and more active with a center in Nis. On the Macedonian side, however, there were direct accusations that Russia was behind the anti-Bulgarian "hysteria" in the country.

Macedonian security experts are unanimous that Russia has an interest in the Balkans both politically and economically, and that Russian actions in the region are part of a broader strategy to undermine democracy and Western values ​​throughout the Western world in order to strengthen the positions of Moscow.

Blagoja Markovski, president of the Balkan Security Forum, believes that Russia has an interest in the Balkans, it has shown this before and today, and that it wants to have its influence in the coming period as well.

- There are no doubts here, she is interested from both a political and an economic point of view and will continue to behave in this way towards the Balkans. It is her field of interest and she does not want to give it up to anyone. However, her influence would not be so great if she did not find interested individuals and groups, as well as political entities and parties that support her efforts to establish that interest in this part of the Balkans - says Markovski in a statement to "Sloboden Pechat".

However, it is strange for him that Russia is attacked exceptionally, without personalizing the problems in Macedonia and Bulgaria. If Russia did not have its subjects in both countries, it would not be able to exert its influence, as it is trying to do now, so the blame should be sought not only from Moscow but also from the supporters of its policy.

Who are the culprits? Markovski points to Bulgarian President Rumen Radev as an exceptional supporter of Russian politics and Russian interests, and while he is the president, "our servility to Bulgarian politics will produce such events and such an economic and political situation in Macedonia."

- Radev is an exponent of Russian interests in both Bulgaria and Macedonia. In the EU and in NATO, it should be clearly stated that his behavior and practical actions are in the interest of Russia, not the good neighborly relations between Macedonia and Bulgaria. Radev is the biggest culprit for what is happening now, together with his supporters, primarily the Bulgarian socialists and the technical government that he installed - says Markovski.

For the university professor Marjan Gjurovski The Balkan region is part of the hybrid conflict between the West and Russia, and the main goal of the Russian strategy for the Balkans is to slow down the integration of countries in NATO and the EU and spread mistrust towards them, and corrupt democratic systems.

- The propaganda is a traditional Russian measure towards the Balkans, which aims at the Slavic Orthodox communities, and the main message is the "special relationship" they have with the Russians - says Gyurovski for "Sloboden Pechat".

According to him, the Russian Federation has four specific goals: Influence the decision-making process in each individual state of the region, win the "hearts and minds" of the peoples, erode the institutions and the political system by encouraging distrust in democratic and state institutions, as well as intra-ethnic, inter-ethnic, social, cultural and political polarization of societies, leading to poor governance in each individual state and increasing energy dependence in the region.

- Russian action in the Balkans is part of Putin's broader strategy to undermine democracy and Western values ​​throughout the Western world in order to strengthen the positions of the Russian Federation. The modus operandi of Russian foreign policy and the Russian intelligence services is the same in Europe and the Balkans, but it is always adapted to local circumstances. At the moment, points with the biggest "window of opportunity" in the Balkans, i.e. "hot spots" are the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue and the situation in BiH related to Republika Srpska, concludes Gjurovski.