Russia has stepped a step deeper into an even more dangerous phase of the Ukrainian war, and the notion of territorial conquests, which the Russians should identify as a victory, destroys the prospects of any peaceful solution and maximally isolates Moscow on the global diplomatic stage.

The annexation, the anschluss of the parts of Ukraine - the self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and the regions of Zaporozhye and Kherson - was carried out after referendums, which the world does not recognize, and which are presented as the electoral will of the majority of ethnic Russians.

The administrators of the four regions, appointed by and responsible to Moscow, asked Vladimir Putin to include their territories in the composition of the Russian Federation. The Kremlin chief responded to the call for "fraternal aid" following the model his Soviet predecessors used for interventions in Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968. The Russian Duma voted to join.

Putin is convinced that by restoring the "brotherhood" he has fulfilled another historic mission. The first was when, in 2014, Russia returned to itself Crimea, which Catherine the Great captured from the Tatars in 1783, but in 1954, by the decision of the then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, the peninsula was given to Ukraine as a gift.

Now, as a birthday present, Putin has received 15 percent of Ukraine from the secessionists he "liberated from Western colonization," the largest military seizure of territory in Europe since the end of World War II.

The Kremlin has chosen to escalate the conflict, which is unequivocally confirmed by the Kremlin's decisions on annexation, the mobilization of 300.000 reservists and the threat of using nuclear weapons if Russia is attacked, including the newly appropriated regions.

Putin believes that history will repeat itself and is convinced that wars are his allies. The second Chechen war made the then little-known Kagebeov the most popular politician in the country. He remembers that, but seems to have forgotten the ancient saying: "Beware of Danaans even when they bring you gifts."

Fast forward to NATO

Realizing part of his ambitions for the reconstruction of the Soviet territories - the collapse of which Putin called "the greatest disaster of the 20th century" - Vladimir Vladimirovich provocatively calls for the continuation of the war, because it is clear that the authorities in Kyiv will not accept the confiscation of sovereign territory.

Putin threatens that "with all the means at his disposal" he will defend the territories that have been incorporated into the Russian Federation and reiterates that the fighting will continue until the entire east of the Donetsk region, two-fifths of which is still occupied, is "liberated". under the control of Ukrainian forces.

Buoyed by a new $1,1 billion package of US military aid, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has announced a continuation of the counteroffensive launched in September until all occupied parts of the country are liberated. Submitted a request for Ukraine's entry into NATO following an accelerated procedure.

"Zelensky wants to enter NATO as soon as possible. Great idea. He is just asking the North Atlantic Alliance to speed up preparations for the Third World War," retorts the Deputy Chairman of the Russian National Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev.

Zelensky's request would take the war into an unpredictably dangerous zone, and it is good that it did not meet with a favorable reception in the West. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan made it clear that "the time is not right" for membership.

Russia, with a veto in the United Nations Security Council, prevented the passing of a resolution that would have declared the referendums "illegal and invalid" (China abstained), but Putin's celebration was overshadowed by announcements of new sanctions from the West, which will strengthen the isolation of Russia will slow down the flow of its economy even more.

Putin is asking for support

Some events on the front must have hit him even harder. Russian troops in some sectors are withdrawing from territories that formally already belong to Russia. A day after the ceremony in the ornate hall of the Kremlin Palace, the Russian garrison left Liman, a town north of Donetsk that is an important transport hub and which the Russians have spent weeks of the military campaign capturing.

Putin warned Kyiv and all its international allies, especially from the West, that the residents of the annexed regions are "forever" Russian citizens. At a time when Russia's strategic position is seriously shaken, and the situation on the front is unfavorable for him, Putin asked the Russian public and the few foreign allies - such as Syria, Nicaragua or North Korea - to express their support.

The war is entering a critical phase. After the loss of Liman, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called for "more drastic measures" - limited use of nuclear weapons.

The annexation is the riskiest gambit in Putin's career, not only because of the general international support for Ukraine and the reservations expressed by his allies China, India, and even Turkey, but also because of the Russian public, from whom, contrary to propaganda, it is increasingly difficult to hide that it is not just a "special military operation", but a real war in which Russian soldiers die and the army suffers defeats.

It is estimated that more than 260.000 people have fled since the mobilization, mostly to neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan and Georgia, and the protests do not stop despite the harsh reaction of the law enforcement forces and mass arrests. Even the Russian Patriarch Kirill did not convince them that they should go and fight, because if they die, all their sins will be forgiven, and their sacrifice will be equal to that of Jesus.