Ljupчоo Popovski

In whose heart is Poland?

It seems like no one here is interested in what the Polish presidency will do with EU enlargement. Macedonia is almost nowhere mentioned in Warsaw's plans.

In the past, texts, analyses, and predictions were written every six months when a member state was to take over the presidency of the European Union. It was somewhat similar half a year ago when Hungary took over the helm of the rotating leadership. What kind of expectations were formed about the power and skill of the longest-serving leader in the EU, Viktor Orban, his European Commissioner for Enlargement Oliver Várhelyi, about Macedonia's progress, it was claimed that the Hungarian Prime Minister should not be underestimated, even though he is almost isolated in the Union. The government even sent its own man to Budapest as a special representative in the EU presidency (former ambassador Ivica Bocevski).
In reality, the Hungarian presidency achieved success in several areas: Bulgaria and Romania finally got the green light to join Schengen, Albania separated from Macedonia and opened two clusters, Montenegro closed three, but Orban failed to push Serbia to open at least one cluster. No one mentioned Macedonia, not even Várhelyi, except in one sentence, that we will probably not move forward until we make the constitutional changes.
The Hungarian czardas is over and since January 1st, elegant Polish mazurkas and polonaises have been on stage. Almost nothing is written about Poland's EU presidency (except for an extensive analysis from Brussels by the state agency). This society seems to have suddenly lost interest in the EU, not only politics, but also those who deal with the analysis of political developments, some of the parties, journalists, and even people who work in non-governmental organizations dedicated to European issues. It seems that no one is particularly interested in the European path anymore. What is more important than writing about Artan Grubi every day for a month now, about his, assisted or not, escape, whether or not he received the email about his dismissal from the University of Tetovo, daily announcements from government partners about the life and connections of the former deputy prime minister, who is still not being prosecuted for the things for which he was put on the American blacklist.
Whether Macedonian Foreign Minister Timcho Mucunski requested and failed to meet with one of the most important people in European diplomacy, his Polish counterpart Radoslaw Sikorski, we do not know. Perhaps he met somewhere by chance. Those who do not know the influence and authority of Sikorski in Europe and across the Atlantic should work harder to understand this and work on the agenda for a meeting between the two ministers, and for Radek, as he is widely known, to help break the Macedonian deadlock.
Admittedly, Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during the European People's Party (EPP) summit in Brussels on December 18. According to published photos, the meeting was just between the two of them, and Mickoski posted on Facebook what they discussed:
"We discussed EU-related issues, the possibility of unblocking negotiations with the Union, as well as our positions regarding such efforts. We also exchanged views on the challenges facing the EU, the issue of Ukraine, as well as the use of opportunities for deepened cooperation between the two friendly countries."
What are the possibilities for "unblocking negotiations with the Union" during the Polish presidency of the EU?

First Ukraine and Moldova, then the others

In the comprehensive Warsaw Programme, EU enlargement is mentioned only in the commitments foreseen for the General Affairs Council (GAC), where the European ministers make their recommendations to the candidate countries. The GAC section states, among other things:
“Enlargement is the best possible instrument for the EU to strengthen and promote peace, democracy, the rule of law and prosperity in Europe. Enlargement is also the most effective channel for promoting European values ​​in our neighbourhood. The aim of the Polish Presidency is to achieve progress in the enlargement process, both in the eastern direction and in relation to the Western Balkans, in line with the inclusion of countries aspiring to join the EU, in line with the merit-based approach… The Presidency will continue to work on the internal reforms of the EU to meet its long-term priorities, to ensure the smooth functioning of EU policies and its capacity to act in the face of new geopolitical realities and the prospects of enlargement. We will focus on what is needed to prepare the EU for new members.”
This seems too general. More details were given by some of the Polish representatives. And they don't seem very attractive for Macedonia. In fact, no one even mentions Macedonia.
Poland's permanent representative to the EU, Agnieszka Bartol, announced that the enlargement of the Union is a geopolitical priority for Poland, adding that Warsaw "intends to take a balanced approach to the accession process, especially for the Western Balkans."
Sikorski said that Poland would ensure "the appropriate speed and quality of the European Union's enlargement to the east and south" during its presidency. "Our goal is to achieve progress in Ukraine, Moldova, as well as in the Western Balkans. Progress in the accession process should be commensurate with the achievements of the EU candidate countries."
Ukraine and Moldova applied for EU membership shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The process is crucial for the security landscape in the years ahead and Russia's influence among member states.
Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Marek Pravda, recently said that the EU would “quickly” move forward with the initial phase of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova during the Polish presidency and that the EU would open two areas of negotiations: the rule of law and external relations. In an EU accession referendum in October, Moldovans narrowly voted to change their country’s constitution to include the strategic goal of membership in the bloc. Ukraine has completed the screening of the first set of negotiation chapters.
Sources in the Polish mission to the Union said that Warsaw hopes that Albania and Serbia will open negotiations on new chapters, and Montenegro will close some of the open ones. Macedonia seems to have been forgotten. In Warsaw's positions on enlargement, several of its officials stated that the pace at which this will take place will depend on the candidates' commitment to implementing reforms and fulfilling obligations. And we know what our obligation is. In two or three months we will find out in whose hearts Poland is.
Poland’s agenda is about security and security alone – external and military, energy, economic, food and climate, health and information. The first thing the Polish presidency will face is whether US President-elect Donald Trump will impose general tariffs of 20 to 10 percent and 20 percent on Chinese goods after January 60. If these announcements come true, it will be a major blow to the Union. Trump’s second term is expected to be even worse for trade than the first, but the European Commission is adamant that it is better prepared this time. But bringing Trump to the negotiating table will require the EU to display the entire arsenal of trade defense it has been building since his first term. Not to mention Russia and the threat to European security.

Two things

Two things could affect Macedonia's hopes (if we exclude the impossibility of talking to any government in Sofia) for our progress towards the EU. One is indirectly related to Skopje, the second is not, but could have major consequences in the allocation of Warsaw's energy towards priorities (if enlargement breaks out among the top eight).
What may influence Warsaw's commitment to seeking a way out of the Macedonian impasse is the level of brotherly, and even more so, relations between the Macedonian authorities and Viktor Orban. After the fall from power of the nationalist Law and Justice party in Poland, relations between Budapest and Warsaw deteriorated dramatically, and with recent events they have become deeply frozen. Even at the official gala promotion of the Polish presidency at the main theater in Warsaw at the beginning of this year, Viktor Orban, nor any other Hungarian official, was invited. There are reasons for this, and among them the name of former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski looms large. Not as an excuse, but as an example.
Why did such a complete freeze occur, which the Macedonian authorities should keep in mind?
Marcin Romanowski, a former deputy justice minister during the Law and Justice government in Poland, allegedly embezzled 25 million while in office. The evidence of the crime is irrefutable: the details were told to prosecutors by his closest associate, Tomasz Mraz. The money was taken from a public fund intended for crime victims.
When the parliamentary committee and the prosecutor's office summoned Romanowski for questioning, he pretended to be hospitalized, before disappearing without a trace. It soon became clear where he had gone. After the Polish prosecutor's office issued a European arrest warrant and an Interpol red notice for him, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced that his government would offer asylum to all politicians suffering persecution in Poland. And Romanowski had already been in Hungary for several days.
Romanowski is not the first PiS official to flee to Hungary. After being summoned by another parliamentary committee, Daniel Obajtek, the former head of Orlen, Poland’s largest state-owned company, also sought Orban’s protection. In the June elections, he ran for a seat in the European Parliament from Hungarian territory, and only re-entered Poland after being elected and granted parliamentary immunity (the Polish prosecutor has since filed a motion to revoke this status).
Protecting corrupt politicians is nothing new for Orban. He has already granted asylum to former Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who fled to Hungary to avoid prison on corruption charges. And he allowed former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to hide in the Hungarian embassy while under investigation for a failed coup attempt following his election defeat in 2022. There is even talk in Warsaw that PiS lawmakers and ministers could form a “government in exile” by fleeing to Hungary during Donald Tusk’s premiership.
In this anger against Orban, Polish media write that protecting corrupt politicians is nothing new for the current government in Budapest. They also state that Orban granted asylum to Nikola Gruevski, the honorary president of the party that currently governs Macedonia, who fled to Hungary to avoid prison for a corruption conviction. And that the authorities in Warsaw have little understanding for populist politicians who govern at home or flee to Hungary.
This is a delicate situation for the Macedonian government and it needs to find all its dexterity to avoid getting caught up in the Warsaw – Orban, Gruevski, Romanovski – Skopje triangle. Poland plans to file a complaint with the European Commission to initiate proceedings against Hungary under Article 259 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and to instruct Budapest that it can no longer be a haven for corrupt politicians across Europe. With such leniency towards Hungary, the rule of law will suffer everywhere in the EU.
The second thing that could drain much of Donald Tusk and his government’s energy is the presidential election in May. Tusk’s main focus seems to be on securing a friendly political successor to incumbent President Andrzej Duda. The current president has effectively blocked much of the government’s legislative agenda thanks to his veto power. PiS’s continued control of the presidential palace will block the remainder of Tusk’s term, which ends in 2027.
The candidate of the government coalition is Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, while PiS has once again fielded an outsider candidate to face a strong favorite – historian Karol Nawrocki, who is lagging behind Trzaskowski in all polls.
It’s a familiar situation for PiS. In 2015, the party’s candidate Andrzej Duda rose from virtual nobody on the benches of the European Parliament to defeat President Bronisław Komorowski – exploiting the incumbent’s fatal combination of running a complacent and inept campaign. Duda’s shock victory helped PiS win parliamentary elections later that year. This year, the stakes are just as high.
Nawrocki was chosen by PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński over any of the party’s well-known insiders, such as former prime ministers Mateusz Morawiecki or Beata Szydło. He headed Poland’s World War II Museum, as well as the Institute of National Remembrance, a body that catalogues war crimes against the Polish nation – all key to nationalist voters.
Ten years ago, there was an assumption that Komorowski could not lose to anyone. By the time he realized that the election was a fight, the momentum had shifted to Duda. Trzaskowski and the government team fear the same mistake. The Warsaw mayor's current convincing lead in the polls is no guarantee of victory. And his defeat would be Tusk's worst nightmare.
The Macedonian authorities do not seem to be betting much on the Polish presidency. They can hardly wait for Donald Trump to take office on January 20 and, with strong pressure from Washington across the Atlantic, to lead the rapprochement with the EU on Macedonian terms. And who knows what kind of policy Trump will lead after he takes office. It seems that he himself knows, as do his future closest associates. For example, the future Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a man who is a known hawk on relations with China and Russia, has said almost nothing about the future direction of American diplomacy. We will wait, the world does not know, let alone Macedonia.

Deutsche Welle

(The author is a journalist and political analyst)

THE LANGUAGE IN WHICH THEY ARE WRITTEN, AS WELL AS THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THE COLUMNS, DO NOT ALWAYS REFLECT THE EDITORIAL POLICY OF "FREE PRESS"

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