VIDEO INTERVIEW | Professor Sinisha Naumoski: We are in an economic third world war, but this is not a financial crisis
The problems at Swiss Bank in Switzerland have nothing to do with those at Silicon Valley Bank, but the tremors in Switzerland caused shares in Germany's Deutsche Bank to fall. However, this should not worry as the bank ended last year with the highest net profit of 6,6 billion euros
The economic crisis we are facing is different from the world financial crisis of 2008, emphasizes Professor Sinisha Naumoski. He says that the uncertainty does not come from the negative incidents with banks in America and the EU, but from the fact that "we are in an economic third world war".
Naumoski said that citizens should not be worried about the banking system here, it is stable and highly liquid.
l What happened to the bank in the United States, whose collapse caused investor uncertainty and fear of a possible repeat of the Great Financial Crisis?
- These developments had nothing to do with the 2008 crisis. During the pandemic period, in 2020, we were all closed, there were "lockdowns" both here and in America. In Silicon Valley, where the bank that announced a possible financial crisis was located, the Bank of Silicon Valley focused on clients from the IT industry. We know that in the covid period all those businesses that offered technology development, digital technology were attractive. Thus, in 2020 and 2021, a number of companies are growing dramatically as startups in Silicon Valley. These companies have become recognizable and favorite clients of Silicon Valley Bank. But especially last year, as post-pandemic, combined with the developments in Ukraine, we had inflationary movements. Therefore, the Central Bank of America began to tighten, and on the other hand, a number of companies in Silicon Valley that were growing too quickly began to lose markets from eastern countries, and this caused liquidity problems. Previously, when the Bank of Silicon Valley was too liquid, like all banks in such a situation, it invested its funds in securities, more than 60 percent, and they bought the safest securities - US government bonds. But with bonds, an inversely proportional process occurs from discount interest rates – when interest rates go up due to a tighter monetary policy, bond interest rates fall. Impaired liquidity and especially a crisis among some startups caused a demand for free money in the bank, but it did not have enough funds to meet the deposit requirements of the startups, and the information that it will be recapitalized for 1,7 billion euros, sometime around March 8, was the reason for the rapid spread of speculation that that bank has problems. It was amazing how a 200 billion euro bank could close overnight. That bank is already gone and has caused effects on two other smaller banks in the US. But the state, somewhat inappropriately for that kind of interventionism in America, is already compensating those who had money in those banks and the crisis has already stabilized.
l Do the developments with these banks in America have any connection with the Swiss bank?
– The two banks are not connected. Switzerland is seen as a banking brand and how others would handle a crisis if it can't. Swiss Bank has been making bad moves for years and investors did not want to recapitalize it. This bank has been showing bad results for three years and last year they had a 7,8 billion euro loss. Compared to them, the younger competitor UBS Bank, which bought them, had a drastically increased portfolio. It bought them through the Government and the Central Bank of Switzerland for 3,3 billion euros and had a huge support of 101 billion euros from the monetarists and 9 billion from the Swiss Federal Union. It happened around March 20 and if there was no support then it would have had a serious effect on the European Central Bank.
l On European soil, we could hear that the value of Deutsche Bank's shares is decreasing by double digits. Macedonia is particularly sensitive to developments in Germany, because we have significant economic ties with this country.
- Deutsche Bank has recorded the highest growth and profit in the last 15 years. It ended last year with about 6 billion euros in net net profit. Yes, there was a fall in the value of the shares, but that is normal and it was caused by the developments in Swiss Bank in Switzerland and it is now stabilizing.
As for the connection with the German economy, more than 70 percent of the companies in the zones are German, but it can be seen that they are in full fitness. The only concern may be where to find workers, that is already becoming a serious problem. Labor productivity has been declining for 30 years.
l Is there any connection of our banks with what happened to the banks in the USA and in the EU and in what condition are they?
- Last year, commercial banks ended with a record profit of over 157 million euros, all 13 banks have protective layers above the required minimum, they have very large free liquid assets, if we look at their assets - the largest 5 banks have group assets over 9,2 billion euros and showed serious growth in this compared to the previous quarter. In structure, they are traditional banks, lending to individuals and seriously good companies. They also have a continuous savings growth of 3 to 5 percent. All 13 banks have assets over 11,3 billion euros.
Total bank liabilities abroad, including the USA, do not exceed 6-6,6 percent, and on the liabilities side there are deposits that are two-thirds of citizens.