VIDEO | Andonovic: Are you a victim of an accident or an assassination?

Analysis with Andonović / Photo Sloboden pechat

The Vice President of Iran Mohsen Mansouri confirmed the information about the death of the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, during the crash of the helicopter in which Raisi was together with the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Raisi died after the helicopter he was in crashed in East Azerbaijan province.

As the state media previously reported, "there are no signs that anyone survived the helicopter crash."

A look at the video released by the rescue teams leads to the conclusion that it was an accident, but in such cases, especially when it comes to regimes where there is no free flow of information, a wide space for conspiracy theories opens up.

Such a process was guided by the statements of the head of all heads of Iran, religious leader Ali Khamenei, who said that "the Iranian people should not worry because there will be no turmoil" in the country. Hence, the top government is worried as various currents may use the accident as a reason for unrest. In Iran, even a smaller cause has sparked state-level protests.

Israel would have an interest in destabilizing Iran, but is currently under intense pressure from the US to halt its aggression on the Gaza Strip, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes an operation against the remnants of the Palestinian militant movement Hamas in the town of Rafah guarantees him to stay on power even though it has the ability to act on multiple fronts.

The US has no interest in escalating the crisis in the region as it works on the sensitive issues of resolving the war in the Gaza Strip and the security agreement with Saudi Arabia. Russia is an ally of Iran, so it is assumed, at this stage, that there were no external actors to cause the accident.

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev reacted quickly, understandably because Ebrahim Raisi was returning from a visit to his country, specifically from a visit to the Iranian province of East Azerbaijan. The quick reaction is also an effort to remove any possible responsibility from Baku.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran, although both countries are Shiite, are far from good. Baku has developed strategic relations with Israel, which has helped it regain territories occupied by Armenia, and this is more than a good reason for its hostility towards Tehran.

Iran is unhappy that Azerbaijan is still secular and would like to see a regime that turns to the Iranian "Islamic Republic" model, which would allow Tehran to exert greater influence in the Caucasus, where its only ally is weak Armenia.

The current situation in the Caucasus is very nerve-wracking and therefore does not require further unrest, Georgia is rocked by public protests against a pro-Russian law that limits foreign funding of the media and non-governmental organizations, Armenia cannot accept the defeat inflicted by Azerbaijan, and in Chechnya , which is Iran's northern neighbor, the political situation as a result of the illness of its leader Ramzan Kadyrov is very fragile.

As an additional tension in the region, of course, the strengthening of the terrorist group Islamic State in Central Asia, which recently carried out a terrorist attack in Moscow - announced in Afghanistan that it controls the entire province of Nangarhar, and its influence is also growing in Tajikistan - which, according to many, is intensively creating at a dangerous critical mass.

Regarding Iran's domestic policy agenda, it is also important to know that Raisi has been the first name in most discussions to succeed Supreme Leader Khamenei, who is old and ailing and could soon step down.

The 63-year-old political veteran and authority had long been seen as the natural successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's highest authority, as he was considered a hardline and religiously conservative politician who had deep connections in the judiciary and religious elite.

Within the religious spectrum of Iran's leadership, there are serious conflicts between ideologues who want an informal end to the republic and conservatives who want to preserve this system. There are no more reformists, or rather they have been pushed out of power. Raisi was supposed, if Khamenei died during his term, to take over until new presidential elections were called. Since this is a person who has shown recklessness in dealing with women's protests, it is not excluded that he leaves the presidency to a close associate - which does not suit the conservative wing.

Here we should also mention the powerful Iranian military, above all the Revolutionary Guard, which wants to preserve the current system in which they have a strong influence on economic flows, which allows them access to funds almost without control. They did not like the idea of ​​the religious leaders, the "mullahs" taking control of all power. They believe their merits in forming a regional coalition from Hamas to Yemen's Houthis deserve an even greater share of power.

The recent bloody terrorist attack carried out by the ISIS group in Iran at the end of January, when more than 80 people were killed, is a confirmation that the security services are more concerned with internal relations and conflicts than with numerous threats, according to those familiar with the situation.

An additional enigma remains Khamenei's attempt to balance the aforementioned factions, which have already taken many fighting positions, and there are increasing indications that he must show a resolve he does not want, as was the case with the decision to attack Israel following a rocket fired by the Israeli army, which killed a group of senior Iranian Guard commanders stationed in Syria.

There is no doubt for many that there will be a group within the Iranian government that will blame Israel for the attack. Therefore, the possibility of some form of revenge should not be excluded, but not immediately, but when the situation calms down. The idea of ​​a possible attack on Israeli interests will be fueled by internal disagreements in the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the decision of Benny Gantz, the leader of the opposition, who announced his exit from the military cabinet, according to world analyzes.

Hamas attacked as internal conflicts culminated. Yemen's Houthis will continue to attack ships, and Lebanon's Hezbollah will continue its policy of refraining from open conflict with Israel due to the state of affairs in a country plagued by debt, religious and political divisions.

It remains to be seen what the result of the investigation will be. Has Raisi been assassinated or is he a victim of a helicopter crash due to bad weather?

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