VIDEO | Andonovic: Putin will give a big speech today, it is feared that he will announce a new mobilization

Analysis with Dejan Andonović / Morning Press of Sloboden Pechat, January 18, 2023
Analysis with Dejan Andonović / Morning Press of Sloboden Pechat, January 18, 2023

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will give a speech today. For now, it is not announced what the reason is and what would be the main topic of today's extraordinary address by Putin.

This announcement in the world, as well as the domestic public, fueled speculations that Putin could announce a new decision that many in Russia fear.

A new wave of mobilization would be the logical move of the Kremlin, which is already announcing a tailor-made new phase of the war in Ukraine.

Namely, Russia currently has about 150 thousand soldiers on the battlefields in Ukraine and another 300 thousand soldiers who were included in the first wave of "partial mobilization" carried out in September. Then people were mobilized, mostly from the poorer areas of Russia. The first wave of "partial mobilization" announced by Putin in September led to a mass exodus of men from Russia who could have been mobilized.

With the change of the command structure and the placing under full command of all branches of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine, under the chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the Russian forces are expected to complete the breakthrough at Bakhmut and start the next phase in the destruction of the Ukrainian forces. . Taking into account the weather conditions, the Russian generals want to take advantage of the favorable climate and frozen ground and launch a deep breakthrough with tanks and armored mechanized forces through the Ukrainian defense lines.

For a long time, the public speculated and estimated that Russia in this military intervention has an insufficient number of soldiers to achieve military goals in the large territory of Ukraine. The strategy of supplementing the Russian forces with volunteers, members of the private company Wagner, and Chechen fighters, proved insufficient to realize Moscow's plans to break the Ukrainian resistance.

Hence, it is logical to expect Russia to carry out additional mobilization because the process of training and filling the units is a process that usually lasts at least several months. Possibly, the newly mobilized soldiers would be operational in the spring, when the new Russian offensive in Ukraine is announced.

And the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claims that the president could use this opportunity to declare a second wave of mobilization.

In recent days, the Kremlin has denied that Russia is planning a second wave of mobilization.

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