VIDEO | Andonovic: After the presidential elections in the USA and in Russia, will the fate of Ukraine be known?
For many in the world, November 2024 will be a crucial month for the future of the world. Then the outcome of the presidential elections in the United States will be held and will be known, in which it seems that the current president, Joe Biden, as the candidate of the Democrats, will try to win his re-election. Among the Republicans with the best chances, at least according to the polls, could be Biden's predecessor, Donald Trump, who does not hide that, like Biden, he wants to return to the presidency.
The outcome of this presidential race, for many, will be the indicator of when and how some of the world's burning issues will be resolved. The most pressing problem is of course the war in Ukraine, which has brought the world back to the "cold war" era.
This war has been going on for almost two years and there is no indication when it will end. "Ukraine must not lose, Russia must not win" was the slogan to which the authorities in Kiev, supported by Western countries, were directed.
But the war is still going on, much longer than those who planned and designed it for their own geostrategic purposes, so its outcome and end began to be questioned.
Western countries, which now with the war between Hamas and Israel, Ukraine has fallen into the background, are speculating about the possible timing of the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
A senior representative of the State Department, who insisted on anonymity, recently told the Reuters agency that Vladimir Putin will not soon start peace talks with Ukraine. In his opinion, he is waiting for the epilogue of the presidential elections in America, after which he will insist on ending the war with Ukraine.
"I expect that Putin will not push for peace or any meaningful peace efforts until he sees the outcome of our election," the US official said, referring to the US presidential election scheduled for November 204
This is the first time a US official has spoken about the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. More significantly, this is the first time anyone has spoken openly about when Putin will be ready to sit down at the negotiating table, as well as mentioning the importance of the US election in the whole process. In the previous months, there was a lot of speculation about the possibility of some kind of agreement between Ukraine and Russia. The main reason is the apparent deadlock in which the two countries found themselves on the front.
Putin and Zelensky are simultaneously facing internal upheavals, as well as changing relations in the international community. The war between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East, which constantly threatens to escalate and spill over into other topics, has attracted all the attention of the West. First of all, Ukraine's biggest allies now have a burning problem on the other side of the world. That's where the weapons and money are now going, while Kiev unsuccessfully appeals for new supplies.
Precisely for this reason, it was speculated that the international community will put pressure on Zelenski, so that he accepts the conclusion of a peace agreement as soon as possible.
Putin, on the other hand, is depleting his resources, and he needs some kind of victory because of the elections held in Russia next year.
However, the US official's statements suggest that Putin has another agenda – the US elections.
But next year there are also presidential elections in Russia.
In March next year, presidential elections will be held in Russia, the first since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is expected to have the biggest advantage and great popularity. Putin, on the other hand, has a big problem, because of which it seems that the current head of the Kremlin is not going to the elections with enthusiasm. On the contrary, his situation has changed drastically.
The war in Ukraine has brought sanctions to Russia, citizens are living harder because inflation is rising, men are being mobilized and sent to the front, the army is not winning a "big and quick victory", so it seems that Putin is worried for a reason because March is approaching.
The upcoming presidential election has never been more important. This is the first election since Russia's full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Putin is "inexplicably worried" about the outcome of the upcoming elections next March, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said. A US research group pointed to comments this week by the chairman of Russia's Central Election Commission that the Russians had "already begun efforts to discredit" the election.
The Certainties of a Putin Election Meet the Uncertainties of War
There is little doubt about the outcome, should he run, but the election in March carries more significance than the first one since the invasion of Ukraine.https://t.co/o2bWha0wmH
— Sean Graf (@seangraf) November 25, 2023
ISW analyzed that the comments suggest that Russia "will continue to intensify censorship efforts under the guise of fighting attempts to interfere in the election internally", implying that Putin does not feel completely safe as he chases re-election.
The election is directly related to Putin's 2024 military strategy. Specifically, will he order a new mobilization, which is quite unpopular among Russians.
Critics question the purpose of presidential elections in a war-torn country where most opposition leaders are either exiled or imprisoned, the Kremlin-controlled electoral apparatus filters who can and cannot run, and most news stories praise the incumbent president. .
Next year is crucial because it is an election for the two world superpowers that are in conflict over Ukraine. In these elections, new or the same political actors who are leaders in the creation of the new world order will have to be chosen. If we take into account that next year Ukraine should also elect the new or re-elect the old incumbent Zelensky, it remains to be seen whether the old and new political set will reach an agreement to resolve the conflict that once again lowered the "iron curtain" and divided it in the world .