VIDEO | Andonovic: Trump's plan for Ukraine would be a victory for Russia, and for the Palestinians the end of their ambitions for a state
Although he will enter the Oval Office of the White House in two and a half months, the analyzes have already begun as to whether Donald Trump can fulfill his pre-election promises and bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East.
"Donald Trump's advisers offer a freeze on the war along the front line, consolidation of occupied territories for Russia, a demilitarized zone and a 20-year freeze on Kiev's integration into NATO," reports The Wall Street Journal, citing sources close to the team of Trump.
Thus, Trump's advisers unconditionally recommend freezing the conflict, handing over approximately 20 percent of Ukraine's territory to Russia, and "temporarily suspending" Kiev's attempts to join NATO.
There is also a variant in which Ukraine would promise not to try to join NATO for at least 20 years, and in return the United States would continue to supply it with weapons.
Also, after the freezing of the front line, the establishment of a demilitarized zone of approximately 1.200 kilometers in length is proposed between the troops of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. It is not yet clear who will control it, but the possibility of deploying a peacekeeping force without the participation of US troops and any structures they finance, including the UN, is being considered.
"We can provide training and other support, but there needs to be a presence of European troops on the ground." We will not send Americans to keep the peace in Ukraine, and we have no intention of paying anymore. Let the Poles, the Germans, the British and the French do it," said a member of Trump's team.
The influential Ukrainian portal Strana concluded that if the US wants to end the war along the existing front line, there is an 80 percent guarantee that it will happen. Neither the Ukrainian authorities nor Europe will be able to oppose Washington's will because Ukraine is completely dependent on Washington's help and is not in a position to insist on impossible conditions.
And for Russia, if it slows down that process, the US could try to influence it through China and other countries of the Global South who are interested in ending the war as quickly as possible.
However, there is a strong military current in the Republican Party that advocates continuing a tough policy toward Russia.
We are talking about a group connected to the US military-industrial complex, as well as the oil and gas business, which are directly profiting from the war in Ukraine.
That group will try to convince Trump that the war was a "good thing" because it allowed the Americans to capture the European oil and gas market, crowding out the Russians.
Moreover, the war in Ukraine binds Europe to the US, making the EU dependent on US defense guarantees. At the same time, it weakens America's two main economic competitors: Europe (due to the destruction of ties with the Russian Federation) and China (due to the fact that it is now easier for the Americans to push trade restrictions against China in the EU).
But if Trump insists on a peace initiative, Vladimir Putin will not reject his proposals if they come, but will enter into negotiations to achieve the best terms for a ceasefire for the Russian Federation.
Finally, ending the war while maintaining Russian control over the vast occupied territories of Ukraine would actually be a major victory for Russia, especially considering that everything could have ended much worse for it, analysts say.
In terms of stopping the war in the Middle East, Trump's plan for Israel and Palestine will likely be implemented before his inauguration on January 20, 2025.
According to previous announcements, Trump plans to ask Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare victory over Hamas and Hezbollah and then reach an agreement.
CNN quoted Palestinian National Initiative official Mustafa Barghouti as saying he also thinks Trump "will not tolerate wars as they are happening" and that "Netanyahu will face a much tougher president than he's used to."
Barghouti, however, added that it would not change much for the Palestinians "because both administrations were completely biased towards Israel" and that there were fears that Trump would allow Israel to annex parts of the West Bank, which would mean "the end of the two states".
However, at least two of Trump's decisions have been disastrous. During his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, even though the eastern part is intended to be the capital of the Palestinian state, and contrary to international law, he also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is not recognized. from the European Union.
At the global level, his decision in 2018, when he withdrew America from the nuclear deal with Iran, which was concluded at the end of 2015 after more than twelve years of international negotiations, caused an even more difficult problem. He was confident he could negotiate a "better deal" than his predecessor Barack Obama. But his policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran was unsuccessful: a year after the US withdrew from the agreement, Iran also began to gradually withdraw from its obligations under the agreement. Today, the country is closer than ever to building a nuclear bomb and in a tight embrace with Russia.