Traditionally close relations between the United States and Europe have marked the Munich Security Conference for decades.

The foundation on which that relationship rested was cooperation on both sides.

But with Donald Trump back in the White House, even what seemed fairly stable for decades is no longer certain. The conference that begins today, known internationally as the Munich Security Conference (MSC), will be a test of the new state of transatlantic relations.

About 60 heads of state and government are expected to attend the Munich Security Conference, which is known as the most important global forum for security policy issues. From the ranks of the new US administration, the arrival in Bavaria, in addition to Vice President J.D. Vance, was confirmed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but not by the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. In addition, as announced by the host of the conference Christoph Heusgen, one of the largest delegations from the US Congress to ever attend the Munich Security Conference is expected to arrive. Among the guests is the new Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte.

A security conference is an informal meeting where no conclusions are reached. That is why an open exchange of arguments is encouraged on site, and conflicts are openly discussed.

In his second term, Trump began to deliver new, harsher rhetoric about transatlantic relations.

The "Munich Security Report" published on the occasion of the conference quotes the US president's statement during the election campaign that European countries are taking advantage of the US in terms of trade, but also within NATO. It also reports on Trump's threat to Europeans: "If you don't pay, we will not protect you."

Trump is bothered by the insufficient investment of some European NATO partners in equipping their military forces.

Washington has so far paid the bulk of NATO's costs and has consistently offered Europe reliable military protection.

Trump is demanding that allies allocate five percent of their GDP to defense. Germany is struggling to allocate two percent, which has since become the (minimum) standard in NATO.

This could have a negative impact on aid to Ukraine, where the United States has been a leading country on the issue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump's envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, will discuss the issue in Munich.

What exactly will come out of these talks is uncertain, but diplomats speculate that a freeze on the conflict could occur, with Kiev, at least temporarily, accepting some territorial concessions in favor of Russia in exchange for security guarantees.

While NATO officials are rejecting the possibility of immediate membership for Ukraine in the Alliance, increasing Western arms deliveries to Kiev is seen as a more realistic option.

Kellogg has previously spoken about the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine at some point, something that is not possible under the Ukrainian constitution while a state of emergency is in effect.

Trump, meanwhile, recently mentioned the possibility of the United States gaining access to Ukrainian rare earth mineral deposits "as compensation for the hundreds of billions it has spent helping Kiev resist the Russian invasion."

The statement by US Vice President J.D. Vance that they are not completely ruling out the option of sending troops to Ukraine attracted the most attention.

"There are economic means of influence, there are, of course, military means of influence" that the United States could use against Putin, Vance said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

He added that US President Donald Trump could change his stance on Ukraine depending on how negotiations develop.

Vance assessed that US President Donald Trump is open to all options and will say "It's all part of the agenda, let's make a deal."

The full analysis is in the video above in the text.