VIDEO | Andonovic: The bloody fall of Bakhmut, a new turning point in the war
Although official Kiev still refuses to admit it, the battle for the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine appears to be over after almost ten months. The victory in the "bloodiest battle" of this war, which practically paralyzed the world more than a year ago, seems to have been won by Russia, or rather by the mercenary Wagner paramilitary formation led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. His forces occupied the center of Bakhmut, while the Ukrainians are on the outskirts of the city. The question that now arises is what is the next goal of the warring parties, considering that Bakhmut represents one of the biggest turning points of the war in Ukraine.
Western military analysts believe that the Battle of Bakhmut greatly weakened the Russian army and showed the weakness of the Russian military command to organize a fight on several fronts at the same time.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is raising new troops, receiving heavy aid in weapons and military equipment from the West, and preparing for a long-awaited spring counter-offensive.
All this puts Russia in an awkward position, with a tired army building fortifications, preparing for the next phase of the war, Western intelligence officials say.
To the south, specifically in the area that military analysts say will be the focus of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian forces have built their own fortifications – a line of trenches and minefields – to prevent a possible Ukrainian military advance.
Analysts believe that if Ukraine succeeds in regaining the territory, it will give Russia a chance to strengthen its air force. This could represent a very dangerous situation for the Ukrainians, who are preparing a counteroffensive.
Namely, if the Ukrainian main strike is really aimed at the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, the Ukrainians may directly fall into the trap.
Analysts argue this with the fact that Ukraine does not have an air defense system in Crimea since the mentioned year 2014, but that territory is completely under the control of Russia. As a result, Kiev's forces do not have the necessary resources to attack and defend in the area around and in Crimea itself, unlike Russia, which can use its powerful aviation and completely crush a possible Ukrainian attempt to conquer Crimea.
Ukraine, which controls the southwestern city of Kherson, which was liberated last November after months of occupation, faces great danger. The Dnieper River being a natural border, Russian artillery units can shell the city from the eastern side with minimal risk of being attacked by land, as an attack by sea is a major undertaking.
In the north, Russian partisans recently entered Russian territory and seized a small part of it, in what is seen as a move to embarrass the Kremlin after the capture of Bakhmut.
However, the Battle of Bahmut had a great impact on both warring sides and on the further course of the war. Both Russia and Ukraine have invested heavily in men and equipment to take control of this devastated city, which before the war had more than 70.000 inhabitants.
Many analysts believe that "Battle for Bakhmut is less important, when it comes to conquered territory. More important, according to them, is the impact it will have on both Russia and Ukraine and in which direction future military operations will move.