VIDEO | Andonovic: Defocusing Russia from Ukraine – Kazakhstan could stab Putin in the back?

Kazakhstan - Russia flag/ Photo Zoonar GmbH / Alamy / Alamy / Profimedia

As time passes and the war in Ukraine intensifies, speculations have begun in the world public about how and in what way Russia plans to get out of the adventure called Ukraine. Moscow faced fierce resistance from the Ukrainians and above all the determination of the NATO allied countries to support and help defend it from the Russian military occupation. This caused problems, first of all in human resources, but also in the resources of the military arsenal, and naturally the need arose for Russia to try to make an alliance with other countries and thus fill its needs in manpower and military assets.

But Moscow got its first cold shower precisely from the CSTO military alliance, which includes several former Soviet republics. At a recent meeting of this organization in Yerevan, the host of the conference, the Armenian Prime Minister criticized Moscow's policy and role in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and Russia's reluctance to intervene, which resulted in the complete loss of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenia's borders.

The Kremlin is plotting a radical scenario for the liquidation of Lukashenko and taking control of the Belarusian army?

In turn, this former Soviet republic did not support Russia's policy, especially its military intervention in Ukraine. But it seems that an even bigger problem was created by Kazakhstan, also a former Soviet republic and a member of the CSTO, which by the way, in the wake of the attack in Ukraine, had a military intervention by the CSTO. Russian-Kazakhstan relations are officially correct, but in reality Moscow is tightening them, and Kazakhstan is trying to free itself from the hugs that are suffocating it. The most famous Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov recently warned "to pay attention that the next problem "Kazakhstan, because Nazi processes can start there, as in Ukraine."

Otherwise, he pointed out that "there are many Russians there", which is why the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Roman Vasilenko, replied that "such statements deserve an appropriate reaction from the Russian authorities".

Russia has long owned the north of Kazakhstan, and this year the problems have escalated because the Kazakh authorities do not support Russian aggression against Ukraine, and along the way they are trying to profit from Western sanctions against Moscow. The Russians, on the other hand, warn them from time to time that they may suffer the fate of Ukraine, although this does not seem realistic now.

Kazakhstan is the ninth largest country in the world and the largest landlocked country and is rich in oil (more than three percent of world reserves) and uranium (41 percent of world production). But also with problems, due to corruption and unfair distribution of the national wealth.

In 2014, Kazakhstan introduced a new "separatist activities" article in its Criminal Code, which provides prison terms of up to 15 years, and even the extremely rare sentence of deprivation of citizenship, for anyone found guilty of separatism or undermining the territorial integrity of the country. The move comes after Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine and encouraged separatism in the Donbass in the middle of the year at an economic forum in St. Petersburg. Speaking with Putin, Tokayev ruled out recognizing parastatal Luhansk and Donetsk and unequivocally refused to be a "testing ground for Russian circumvention of Western sanctions", because he himself fears that in that case he may be attacked by the West.

Kazakhstan relies on Russian pipelines to export oil to Europe, and in July, when Kazakh President Tokayev promised the EU an increase in the volume of Kazakh energy products to Europe, the very next day the Russians announced a three-month closure of the oil terminal in Novorossiysk due to " environmental defects" and thus practically blocked up to two thirds of Kazakhstan's oil exports. Then some well-known regime hawks started talking again about "discrimination against 3,5 million members of the Russian community in Kazakhstan" and even about "historical Russia" which covers the northern part of that huge country.

On January 5, in the wake of Russia's attack on Ukraine, Tokayev dissolved the government and declared a nationwide state of emergency after thousands of protesters clashed with police and stormed government buildings, ousting his predecessor, 81-year-old Nursultan Nazarbayev, at the helm. Road Safety Council. In order to "calm down" the situation, the operations of the troops of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of several former Soviet states, began in Kazakhstan. The state news agency RIA Novosti reported on January 6 that air peacekeeping units entered Kazakhstan, where they are still located.

In Kazakhstan, there are riots on the streets again since yesterday. Many believe that a new conflict could arise from those riots, in which Russia would have to intervene militarily. If you take into account the fact that none of the member states of the Russian military alliance, including Kazakhstan, will send aid, it is more and more obvious that maybe Russia will open a new front in Kazakhstan, at a time when in the now active Ukrainian the front struggles with human and military resources.

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