Carl Bildt / EPA/Bas Czerwinski

Trump's aspiration towards Greenland

Now that he is back in the White House, Trump believes it is “absolutely imperative” for the United States to gain “ownership and control” over Greenland. However, as an autonomous territory of Denmark where the US military already operates, Greenland has no reason to abandon its current political engagement.

In 2019, when Donald Trump first said the United States should “buy Greenland,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen rightly dismissed the idea as “absurd.” Greenland is not for sale, she said. While Denmark controls the territory’s foreign policy and security, Greenland decides its own internal affairs.

But now Trump is back in the White House, convinced that it is “absolutely imperative” for America to gain “ownership and control” of this vast Arctic territory. Even more shockingly, he says he could use military force to achieve his goal, although the threat of massive tariffs remains his preferred option.
As incredible as such statements may seem, there is no reason to laugh. Greenland is an important and sensitive diplomatic issue. Its status should be treated with caution to avoid a larger crisis. And such an outcome would not be in anyone's interest.

History plays an important role here. Greenland was a colony of Denmark until 1953, when it became one of its provinces. In 1979, this huge island (in fact, the largest in the world) was granted self-government. Since 2009, Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark have maintained a system of broad autonomy, in which only a few areas of policy (primarily security and defense) remain under the control of the government in Copenhagen.

Most of Greenland's political parties are pushing for independence for the island, and under a 2009 agreement, they have the right to hold a referendum on the issue. However, the majority of Greenlanders understand that it is too early for such a step. They must first build the necessary capacity to function as an independent nation-state.

After Trump's latest initiative, it can be assumed that the issue of independence will dominate the next Greenlandic elections, which will be held no later than April 6. However, it is unlikely that there will be significant support for replacing the "light hand" of Danish governance with the greedy hands of Trump and his MAGA coalition. One way or another, Greenlanders are committed to the Scandinavian model of a welfare state and are unlikely to want to abandon it for the American model.

Although Greenland is not part of the EU, its inhabitants are, as they are Danish citizens. More than half of the island's budget is provided by the Danish government, and 90 percent of its exports (mostly shrimp) go to the EU market, where Greenland has preferential status.

Despite the territorial and economic ambitions that Russia and China have in the Arctic, military threats to Greenland are minimal. The nearest Russian base is 2.000 kilometers away, and the two Chinese research vessels equipped for Arctic conditions are mainly in the waters around Antarctica.

In addition, under the 1951 treaty (and subsequent treaties), the United States already has the right to station military facilities on Greenland. Tula Air Base in the far north of the island was a huge facility in the early Cold War, although it was publicly denied that it was equipped with nuclear weapons. Today, it has been renamed Pitufik Space Base, and its function is early warning and space surveillance. However, in consultation with the Danish and Greenlandic authorities, the US military on this island can, more or less, do whatever it wants.

Denmark, for its part, operates patrol ships around Greenland and will soon acquire drones for video surveillance. However, the main task of the small military contingent on the island is search and rescue.

Of course, the legacy of colonialism is never easy to overcome. About 88 percent of Greenlanders are Inuit, and relations between Greenland and Denmark are still fraught with complex issues from the past. However, it cannot be said that the United States, which cannot exactly boast about its treatment of its own indigenous population, is in a position to lecture others on similar issues.

Indeed, Greenland possesses large reserves of rare earth minerals that are used in the manufacture of many high-tech products. But the investment conditions for exploiting these resources are far from ideal, given the new political uncertainty surrounding the island, the labor shortage, and the “fragile” natural environment.

Moreover, Greenland and the rest of the Arctic are warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the planet, increasing economic, social, and political vulnerability. That is why Greenland’s slower move toward greater autonomy and, eventually, perhaps, independence should be guided by caution, not by shocking statements and threats.
Trump's outrageous proposal, delivered with an implicit threat of military force, is not only absurd, it's dangerous. The gradual evolution of the delicate relationship between Greenland and Denmark is clearly the best option for that island.

(The author is a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden)

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