Iran is determined to attack Israel within the next few days. This, according to two anonymous sources on the Axios portal, was concluded by Israeli intelligence in a renewed assessment of the threat of a possible reaction by Iran after the assassination of the leader of Hamas while he was visiting Tehran.

The attack would be direct, coordinated by the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah of Lebanon, and would have to be carried out before the start of new negotiations between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza.

The Israelis also informed the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, about the new estimates, which is why Washington, along with the mediators Qatar and Egypt, intensified efforts to speed up a cease-fire in Gaza and an agreement between Israel and Hamas to release the hostages.

- This is a big turn, but the situation is still fluid - one of the sources told Axios.

In the first assessment of the risk of an Iranian attack, produced shortly after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Israeli intelligence warned that there was a risk of an attack, but no time frame was given at the time.

Warfare through militias

Iran and Israel have been waging a cold war since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Tehran funds and supports a range of militias that carry out attacks on Israel, from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, through Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian Territories, to the Houthis in Yemen, and Israel retaliates by supporting rebel and opposition groups, such as the People's Mujahideen in Iran, but the two countries did not go to war directly. An exception is Iran's attack with about 300 missiles and drones in April, in response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, which killed a senior general and several others. Most of the missiles and drones were shot down by Israeli, American, British, French, Jordanian and Saudi air defense systems before they even entered Israeli territory.

A key role in calming that situation was played by Jordan, which intercepted Iranian missiles on its territory and allowed American fighter jets to use the Kingdom's airspace.

US General Michael Kurilla, the commander of US forces in the Middle East, arrived on Saturday on a mission to the region to try to rebuild the front that in April defended Israel from an Iranian attack.

An American carrier and submarine are coming

Defense Secretary Austin directed a nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine to the waters around the Middle East, as well as the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln with its battle group.

- Secretary Austin confirmed the commitment of the United States to take all possible steps to defend Israel and emphasized the strengthening of the American military presence and capacities in the entire Middle East in connection with the escalation of regional tensions - the Pentagon said.

The US military has already announced it will deploy additional fighter jets and naval warships to the Middle East as Washington seeks to bolster Israel's defenses.

President Joe Biden's administration, however, is concerned that it will be more difficult to mobilize the same regional and international coalition now, amid increasingly harsh criticism of Israel over attacks in Gaza and the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran.

Iran announced that it was bound to avenge the assassination, as Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced "severe punishment" for Israel, and Iran's mission to the United Nations announced that "the response will be carefully measured and carried out in a way that does not disrupt a possible ceasefire in Gaza."

First Hezbollah, then Iran

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, however, said that "the military activities of the Revolutionary Guard indicate that Iran is completing preparations for a large-scale attack."

- I hope that they will think again and that this will not lead to the outbreak of war on other fronts. We don't want that, but we have to be ready - said Gallant.

Intelligence officials estimate that the first blow would be delivered by the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah, in response to the assassination of its top commander in Beirut. Immediately afterwards, Iran would join the action with a direct attack on Israel. The coordinated attacks would be of greater scale and ferocity, compared to those of April.

The report also contains an assessment that the new Iranian president does not share the Revolutionary Guard's determination on the scale of the retaliatory attack and is convinced that the escalation of conflicts in the region is not in favor of Iranian interests.

Hamas is hesitant to negotiate

Another problem for intensified peace efforts is the firm stance of the new Hamas leadership that the group will not deviate from the framework of previous talks. The first meeting is scheduled for Thursday in Cairo or Doha. Israeli officials said they would send negotiators to the meeting, and Hamas said only that it was "still considering the invitation."

– Our movement calls on mediators to present a plan to implement what Hamas agreed to on July 2, 2024, based on Biden's vision and the UN Security Council resolution. The mediators should impose this on the occupier (Israel) instead of conducting further rounds of negotiations or making new proposals in order to provide cover for the aggression and will give them more time to continue the genocide against our people - said Hamas.