If there was a conflict between Iran and Israel, many factors would decide, and perhaps the most important would be who else would become involved in the conflict and on whose side.

Tehran does not want to escalate regional tensions, but believes that Israel should be punished to prevent further instability, Iran's foreign ministry said, following the death of the leader of the Palestinian movement Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran.

Israel's war against Gaza has been going on for months, tens of thousands of people have been killed and wounded, and almost the entire besieged Strip's population of 2,3 million Palestinians has been displaced at least once. There are no signs that the Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu will soon agree to a ceasefire and a resolution to the massive humanitarian disaster in Gaza.

In the meantime, the situation became significantly more complicated. In just a few hours, Haniyeh and Fouad Shukr, one of the commanders of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, which has particularly strong ties to Iran, were killed. Those killings and the ongoing military operations in the Palestinian territories threaten the entire Middle East area and there is great fear of a clash between Israel and Iran.

Air Force

If that conflict were to happen, many factors would decide, and perhaps the most important would be who else would be involved and on which side. Washington has already announced that the United States remains committed to the defense of Israel, and Iran is not alone in this constellation of forces. In the first place, the decisions and moves of the Lebanese Hezbollah will be followed the most, and besides Tehran, the Houthi rebel movement from Yemen, as well as certain Shiite paramilitary forces from Iraq, could also be found.

What should be emphasized is the fact that Israel and Iran do not border each other, that is, that Iraq and Jordan are located between them. On the other hand, Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging cross-border fire since last October, when Israel's war in Gaza began after a Hamas-led attack in southern Israel that killed 1.139 people and captured another 200. Israel and Lebanon share a border and tens of thousands of people on both sides have been displaced.

If you compare the numbers and the data from the Global Firepower Index (GFI), most of the numbers are on Iran's side, except for the aviation segment which could be key in this clash. According to GFI, Israel's military is equipped with 612 fighter jets, while Iran has 551.

Although there is not a huge difference in numbers, it is visible in quality. While Israel has no problems with the procurement of both the planes themselves and the equipment for their maintenance and improvement, Tehran has long had difficulties due to sanctions and probably only Russian-made fighter planes are available to it.

Help from allies in the region

As for other numbers: Iran's army has 400.000 active and 350.000 reserve soldiers. On the other hand, the Israelis have 126.000 active soldiers and 465.000 "reservists". In this statistic, Tehran still counts 190.000 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard units. In total, when all infantry units are summed up, Iran has 610.000 and Israel 169.500 active military personnel.

Regarding the artillery and motorized segment, Israel has far more armored fighting vehicles (6.135 – 3.555), while Iran has more tanks (2.842 – 1.650), general artillery pieces (4.873 – 1.000) and rocket artillery (1.755 – 48). . And these figures should be taken with great caution for several reasons. The first is that both sides do not disclose their exact numbers, and a significant portion of the Israeli side is used, damaged or destroyed in Gaza.

In terms of air and anti-air capabilities. and geographic data, Israel is roughly 1.250 kilometers from Iran, 1.650 kilometers from Yemen and 395 kilometers from Iraq, meaning it has time to prepare for possible airstrikes.

On the Israeli side, there is also the fact, proven by Iran's previous attempt to threaten Israel from the air, with missiles and drones, that Tel Aviv will be at a distance from its allies in the region (the American and British units in region, as well as information provided by Jordan or Saudi Arabia.

Anticipating this, Israel expanded defense systems such as the Iron Dome, Patriot, David's Sling (also known as the Magic Wand), and the Arrow system. In parallel with that, work was also done on strengthening the offensive capacities, because the Israeli army is often guided by the policy "attack is the best defense".

On the other hand, Iran has recently devoted itself to the development of missiles and drones, but as a weak point stands out the fact that it has neglected the development of the air defense segment, which could be a problem for Tehran.

Hezbollah as the deciding factor?

What may prevail in Iran's favor is the previously mentioned Lebanese Hezbollah movement, which is considered the best armed para-state fighting formation in the world.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington estimates that this armed group has between 120.000 and 200.000 missiles in stock and that in the event of war, it could easily receive many more missiles from Iran.

Besides the fact that they are stationed in Lebanon and border Israel, Hezbollah could also attack from neighboring Syria, which means that Israel could be threatened from two sides at the same time and target a larger part of its territory.

These are only some of the factors at the disposal of Israel, Iran and their allies, others could be revealed in case of eventual escalation.