The rapid fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria following the successful advance of the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which translates as "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant," will reshape Syria's relations with its neighbors.

The HTS has ruled Syria's last major opposition stronghold in the country's northwestern Idlib region for five years, but as it focuses on consolidating its power in the Syrian capital of Damascus, there is much debate over whether it will be able to govern the entire country, especially as there are many other rebel groups that will want to share power.

"Arab leaders will not like the collapse of Syrian stability," Richard LeBaron, a Middle East expert at the Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank, wrote on Monday.

For years, Assad's key allies have been Russia, Iran and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia. The Arab League - a group of 22 countries - restored relations with his regime in May 2023 after 12 years of isolation as a result of its brutal treatment of the local population during the Syrian civil war.

But in LeBaron's view, among Syria's Arab neighbors, only Qatar – which has staunchly opposed the Assad regime – could step in to help rebuild the devastated, fragmented and economically weakened country.

Its new leaders will hope to lift international sanctions, but it remains to be seen which actors, other than Qatar, might be willing to back them.
The HTS group, previously linked to the US-designated terrorist organization al-Qaeda, was designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2018.

But its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, recently told CNN that he and other leaders in the group have evolved in their view and understanding of Islam, claiming that the extreme views of their youth have become more moderate over time.

On Monday, the AP news agency reported that he said HTS would not impose dress codes on women or interfere with other personal freedoms. In recent years, the militia has shown tolerance towards religious minorities such as Christians or the Druze community in areas under its control.

Strained relations with neighbors

Syria's neighbors, such as Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel, have strengthened their border security.

"It is still too early to fully assess the regional implications, but security concerns are dominating the reactions of neighboring states," Nanar Hawah, senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group, an independent organization that works to prevent war, told DW.

Hawah says Israel welcomed the fall of Assad, who was a key ally of Iran and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, "but still took major steps in terms of security, including incursions into Quneitra and Mount Hermon, where it established a buffer zone along the border as part of the safety precautions."

"Israel also took the opportunity to militarily weaken the successor to the Assad regime by bombing military targets, including air defenses and al-Mazeh airport in Damascus," Hawah added.

It was also reported that US airstrikes on Sunday hit 75 targets on the so-called Islamic State, in central Syria, amid US President Joe Biden's fears that the fall of Assad could open the door to a resurgence of Islamic extremism.

About 900 US troops are currently stationed in Syria to prevent IS from gaining strength again. They also support and train the Kurdish Syrian People's Protection Unit (SPG) in the northeast of the country. Analysts say that HTS and IS do not have common goals, as the former only wants to control Syria and does not aim to build a global caliphate.

Political stabilization and democracy in Syria?

Analysts say that regardless of the regional consequences, Syria's new rulers will have to focus on political stabilization if they want to be recognized by Turkey, the European Union and the United States.

"All these entities are likely to recognize the new HTS government on the condition that it forms a moderate administration, refrains from fighting the Kurdish YPG and does not support Hezbollah or Hamas," said Mehmet Ozalp, associate professor of Islamic studies at the Australian University. Charles Sturt, said online magazine The Conversation.

"Given their unexpected success in ousting Assad so quickly, the opposition is likely to accept these terms in exchange for aid and recognition," he added.
Burju Ozcelik, a senior researcher for security in the Middle East at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), also told DW that although "the country has little experience with democratic institutions and faces a great risk of disorder and even territorial fragmentation" , it could be the "real reason" that this moment could lead to "the beginning of a political solution".

According to Ozcelik, with time and a feasible schedule, it is even possible to implement UN Resolution 2254, which calls for free and democratic elections in Syria.

"It will be essential that the process be as inclusive as possible with minimal outside interference to support the indigenous Syrian roadmap," she told DW.

Displaced people are starting to go home

Since the ouster of Assad, the Syrian population is on the move, as it has become possible to enter parts of Syria that were previously impossible to access.
This was also the case with the Idlib region with around 4 million mostly displaced Syrians living under HTS control for the past five years.

"We have recorded over 370.000 people arriving in Idlib from other provinces," David Carden, the UN's deputy regional humanitarian coordinator for the crisis in Syria, told DW.

“The displacement situation continues to be fluid as people are also returning home,” he said, adding; "We remain committed to staying and delivering and helping the most vulnerable people in Syria through all modalities."

Source: Deutsche Welle/ Author: Jennifer Holleys