CNN: Germans decide the post-Angela Merkel era in uncertain elections

German Chancellor Angela Merkel / EPA-EFE / FRIEDEMANN VOGEL

The citizens of Germany will vote this weekend in the Bundestag elections, which will reveal the name of the new Chancellor, but unlike previous years, this time outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel will not be among the candidates for this position.

Merkel will withdraw from the political scene when the results of perhaps the most uncertain elections ever are announced.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel / September 22, 2021, Seedorf; North Germany / EPA-EFE / FRIEDEMANN VOGEL

Compared to the 2007 or 2013 vote, "there is a much better chance of a significant change in German policy after the election," said Pepin Bergsen, a researcher at the international think tank Chatham House.

The race for Merkel's successor is imminent, and the final winner may not be known for days or even weeks after polls close. The Germans will decide for the first time what their country will look like under the leadership of the chancellor who has spent the past 16 years at the helm of the country.

International Stability Reputation

Merkel's departure from the forefront of world politics has been expected for a long time. She first announced her departure in 2018, saying she would not seek re-election at the end of her term. During her tenure, she worked with five British prime ministers, four French presidents, seven Italian prime ministers, and four US presidents.

Her tenure was filled with great events, and her unwavering presence during that period brought her an international reputation for stability.

"Politically, it worked very well for her and for Germany on the world stage."Bergsen told CNN, adding:

"Germany has been doing well economically for the last 15 years and Germany did not do badly during the financial crisis, but it was realized that it would not last."

The European refugee crisis has proved to be a major challenge for Angela Merkel's political party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and has been a bad target for close relations with China.

However, with the advent of the pandemic, Germany has proven to be better than many neighboring countries, and thanks to that, Merkel will leave office with respect for the majority of Germans. "In Germany, they look at it very positively, because they associate it with stability - people know what they are getting," said Ben Schreer, of the Berlin branch of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

German Chancellors, First row, right to left: Conrad Adenauer (1963) Ludwig Erhard (1972) Kurt Georg Kissinger (1980) and Willie Bandt (1973) Second row, from right to left: Helmut Schmidt (photo from 1976), Helmut Kohl (photo from 1998) Gerard Schroeder (photo from 2005) and Angela Merkel (photo from September 26, 2021)

What are the potential heirs?

German politics is dominated by two political parties - the CDU, the center-right party and the left-wing Social Democratic Party (SPD), which have ruled together in a coalition for the past eight years.

But there are other parties whose popularity has grown over the past decade as the CDU and SPD began to lose territory, and the Green Party emerged as the first serious rival in the election.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her CDU successor candidate Armin Lachette / Photo by EPA-EFE / SASCHA STEINBACH

The 60-year-old is Angela Merkel's successor at the head of the CDU Armin Lashet, a longtime associate and vice-president of the party since 2012. With work experience in the legal profession and journalism, he was elected to the German Bundestag in 1994. Although she received Merkel's support, opinion polls suggest that her departure from the party leadership will have a major impact on the decision of German voters.

The main favorite for Merkel's successor, Olaf Scholz / Photo EPA-EFE / Theo Klein / POOL

Lashett's main opponent is Olaf Scholz of the SPD, who surprised with a good poll position in recent weeks.. He has been a longtime ally of Merkel as finance minister and vice chancellor, which automatically puts him in a better position to vote than the CDU candidate himself.

However, polls show that many voters remain undecided on who to vote for on Sunday, making the election outcome uncertain.

Annalen Bayerbock / 19 September 2021, Germany / EPA-EFE / Sean Gallup

Green Party leader Annalen Bayerbock also surprised by the start of the campaign, prompting voters to wonder if she could be the country's first "green" chancellor.

The former trampoline professional stands out at sea from predominantly male leaders, and she has used climate change as her main trump card to gain the trust of voters in the campaign.

 

The far-right AfD party shares fourth place with the Liberal Democratic Party of Freedom, and the refugee crisis has brought them to the political scene, counting on the votes of citizens who have expressed dissatisfaction with the country's immigration policy.

Journalists follow the pre-election debate, which was broadcast live, between Armin Lashet (right), Annalen Bayerbock and Olav Scholz (left) / 19 September 2021 / Germany / EPA-EFE / FILIP SINGER EPA-EFE / FILIP SINGER

Will Germany remain a world leader without Merkel?

The global consequences of this week's vote are clear: Merkel has become Europe's de facto long-term leader, and it is uncertain whether her successor will take the same position.

"Germany will face significant foreign policy challenges that the new government must face," Schrerer said.

"The question is, who will replace Merkel and will that person have the same charisma and abilities as her?" "The allies are skeptical, and the Germans themselves are wary of that."

A key part of Merkel's role was her persistent determination to maintain cohesion among EU member states.

Bergsen believes that the French president Emmanuel Macron will try to take Merkel's leadership position, which would mean a possible shift in power relations.

President Emanuel Macron welcomes German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Elysee Palace, Paris, France, September 17, 2021 / Photo: EPA-EFE / IAN LANGSDON

Looking further, the new German leader will have to balance that country's relations with the United States and China, two nations with which Merkel has sought to maintain close ties.

It is crucial to keep the UK after leaving the EU, analysts say.

"The United Kingdom remains an important strategic partner, and Germany knows that if the United Kingdom is not engaged on the European continent, it will divide the Europeans," Schreer said.

"Germany is a very respected country on the international stage, there is no doubt about that. The question is: Does this now allow Germany to withstand the international storms that are sure to come?

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