In the first round of local elections on Sunday, SDSM suffered its first electoral defeat since Gruevski's fall. Obviously, the political capital of Zaev and SDSM, gained primarily with the success of overthrowing the Gruevist twisted regime, is slowly but surely melting. Freedom obviously "does not sing" as the underlings sang about it!

Zaev came to power on the wings of a popular revolt against Gruevism, but failed to maintain that "added political value" for long. He drove them away, or they were moving away from him, "colorful", "brankovist", "grumblers", "elitists", intellectuals… It is not an unknown phenomenon - in the fight against a common enemy, "both the dog and the kitten" unite, but when the enemy is gone, everyone goes their own way.

Without that "anti-Gruevist" component, SDSM returned to its standard voting support, which is approximately the same, if not slightly smaller than the hardened voting mass that "dies" for VMRO-DPME, regardless of everything.

That is the first reason for the reduced result - in these elections SDSM "missed" Gruevski. In politics, as well as at school or in sports, one cannot live "in old glory" for long.

The second thing that SDSM forgot is that to be in power, in itself means to lose popularity. And that is its natural "tempering", without any "effort" in that direction. There is another form of loss of popularity - it is its conscious sacrifice in the name of a higher political goal. This is the nature of the concessions made in diplomacy. In our country, it was the Prespa Agreement. He himself broke away from the glacier of SDSM's popularity, but it was not a sacrifice sacrificed in vain. And only that traumatic moment - to change the name of the country - was able to overthrow a government, which Tsipras felt in Greece immediately.

Zaev somehow survived, but failed to deliver visible compensation for the name change, other than NATO membership. The European Union, which is well aware of this game of losing and winning, did nothing to avenge Zaev for the sacrifice he made. Let him pay for the guild himself. First with the Macron-led outcry over the "new enlargement methodology", and then with the sarcastic response to the Bulgarian veto. That proved too much for both Zaev and SDSM. Initiated negotiations with the EU may not have been decisive, but they would have had a significant impact on both the overall atmosphere and the outcome of these elections.

Finally, there is the "autoimmune" loss of popularity - scandals, scandals and mismanagement of crisis situations. Such scandals and situations, thank God there were quite a few. And nobody is to blame for them for SDSM. After evenings and evenings spent with news about Racket 1, Racket 2, in the company of Boki and Katica, Rashkovski, with fugitives Gruevski and Mijalkov, arrest of police chief with drugs, then passports for world criminals, arrested diplomat with old warrant and other minor embarrassments, the result of SDSM in terms of popularity is not so bad. If we add to that the record numbers of patients and deaths from coyote, unpopular lockdowns and restrictions, burned hospital, burned forests without firefighters and Canadians, we can say that the support for SDSM is quite stable. Obviously, remembering where we were, and what SDSM did for Macedonia, a significant part of the voters are ready to see many things through his fingers. But not all. Zaev says that he has understood this message, it remains to be seen what will change in practice and whether there will be an opportunity for that.

Given all the above, I am ready to claim that SDSM is not severely defeated as claimed, regardless of the fact that this result in numbers seems large. Nor that this election result delegitimizes the government, as opposition analysts are quick to impose. Not in the least. Here's why.

The calculations say that in these elections SDSM fell significantly (with hundreds of thousands of votes), and VMRO insignificantly (by 35.000 votes), compared to the parliamentary elections of 2019, if such comparisons are relevant. That, in turn, was enough for a dramatic difference in the number of "conquered" municipalities.

First, I want to remind you of a thing that is often forgotten. Local elections are very different from parliamentary elections in terms of both goals and rules of the game. They are part of a "winner takes everything" game. Theoretically, a one percent advantage in the popularity of one party, if it is evenly distributed throughout the country, means the victory of the first party in all municipalities. Because only one mayor is elected in each municipality, the picture in terms of the number of mayoral seats won is dramatic. The selection of advisors gives a far more realistic proportion. That happened to VMRO-DPMNE in the local elections in 2017. Then this party won only 5 municipalities, and SDSM even 57, eleven times more (ratio 11,4), although the real ratings of the parties differed in the ratio 10: 8 (ratio 1,2). This can be seen from the won council seats: SDSM - 552, VMRO-DPMNE - 432 (ratio 1,2). The situation is similar now, but less defeating in terms of SDSM, because SDSM has won 9 mayoral seats in the first round, with a chance to win several more in the second.

Why do I mention this? Because the rumors about a new parliamentary majority and new elections start from the thesis that "the defeat is huge", starting from the ratio of mayors, hence the conclusion that the government is delegitimized. I claim that, even if there were early parliamentary elections in two or three months, with this rating of the parties, we would get the same composition of the government, probably the same government majority! I would not be surprised if SDSM accepts that, because it can gain a new full mandate. VMRO-DPMNE would easily run after such a bait, driven by the success of the local elections, which, as I said, is illusory.

Of course, I am very much against early elections, motivated by such narrow-minded calculations, whoever they are, because this country has been drained to the bone by permanent elections (moreover, nonsense like those fingerprint machines). Early elections are justified "if and only if" the results do not allow the formation of a government and the system can not work, as is happening in Bulgaria here three times in a row. A new parliamentary majority is another matter - it does not cost the state budget, and it is a completely legitimate way of fighting political actors. Who can, let him do.