What we learned this week: Ukrainian trap

Zharko Jordanoski
Zharko Jordanoski. / Photo: Free Press

One gets the impression that the Ukrainian army is preparing to intervene in the breakaway, separatist Ukrainian territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, to which the Russian army will almost certainly respond. This, in turn, will be considered an invasion of Ukraine and henceforth things can become really ugly.

The stage is set in and around Ukraine for the next planetary drama, which could have major repercussions on the whole world, and consequently on us. If the situation there really escalates, for which all assumptions are made, our current problems with Bulgaria and the EU will look like a cat cough. No one will deal with them, nor will anything mean resolving or not resolving them.

Ukraine is on the "edge". Russian forces have been piling up on its borders for months. Russia says it is concerned about NATO's growing presence and expansion near its borders, but Western intelligence says Putin is planning an invasion of Ukraine. Russia has persistently denied and claimed that it is a victim of systematic media satanization and propaganda. The United States and Britain are threatening sanctions, evacuating their embassies and citizens, creating a pre-war atmosphere.

On the other hand, in the last seven years, the United States and other NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with weapons and military equipment worth over $ 2,4 billion, and Western arms exports to this country have not stopped. Tons and tons of shipments of weapons, ammunition, communication and missile systems, helicopters, drones, armored vehicles are arriving intensively мо Prefabricated hospitals are also arriving, and Western instructors for the Ukrainian army are already on the ground.

One gets the impression that the Ukrainian army is preparing to intervene in the breakaway, separatist Ukrainian territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, to which the Russian army will almost certainly respond. This, in turn, will be considered an invasion of Ukraine and henceforth things can become really ugly.

One can not get rid of the impression that a script has been prepared on stage for a long time. And that the sudden and complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has something to do with it. No matter how justified the arguments for Ukraine's sovereignty and the accusations of crimes in the separatist territories, the motives of the United States can not but seem dubious. Especially if you take into account the private relations with Ukraine of President Joe Biden and his family, which came to the surface during his presidential campaign.

The United States is calling for sanctions and seeking support from allies, and is pushing for the deployment of troops and equipment to neighboring countries. All countries are forced one by one to declare and demonstrate their loyalty. Japan, Italy, France, Canada "made" such statements. The European Union is still hesitant, he says, not to rush, to see what Americans know what we do not know (Joseph Borrell). Germany is particularly cautious, as it risks the most and loses in the event of an escalation. The North Stream pipeline, which is very important to it, has already agreed to pause indefinitely in the event of sanctions, but does not give or sell weapons to Ukraine, unlike other NATO members. The episode with German Vice Admiral Kay-Akim Schonbach, the first man of the navy, showed that it will not be easy for Germany. He had to resign these days after his thoughts were expressed in which he expressed understanding for Russia's positions, concerns and interests.

Macron is now heading to Berlin for talks with counterpart Olaf Scholz in a bid to reconcile views and formulate a common response to the situation in Ukraine, which should form the basis of a common European position on the issue.

China calls for negotiations and demands that the work be returned to the UN and the 2015 Minsk Agreement. With this Agreement, Ukraine undertook to establish a direct dialogue with Donetsk and Luhansk and grant it a special constitutional status for the Donbas region, but did not fulfill that. China also stressed that "Russia's concerns should be taken into account." Putin, meanwhile, is formally heading to China next week for the opening of the Winter Olympics, but it is known that other important talks will take place there.

Turkey says it will "act as a NATO member" but offers to mediate, inviting Putin to Ankara. Bulgaria does not want NATO troops on its territory, but it must be corrected, Romania similarly, NATO is pressing, Russia is protesting. Croatia says it will not send "one soldier to die for Europe's most corrupt country" (Milanovic), but was opposed by Prime Minister Plenkovic, apologizing to Ukraine and taking a different view - that Croatia supports Ukraine's sovereignty, but avoided mentioning engagement Croatian soldiers.

Where is Macedonia here and how should we position ourselves?

At the very least, carefully and diplomatically. However, this is not how the first statements of the new Minister of Defense Slavjanka Petrovska can be assessed. On TV 24, she used the wording that "the deployment of the armed forces by Russia is a provocative and destabilizing act that reduces the security of the European continent." She added that "analyzes are being prepared on the possibilities for potential participation of the RSM Army in case of a Russian invasion of Ukraine" (Telma TV). Northern Macedonia, the minister said, supports Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and integrity, as well as NATO's "open door" policy, which means Ukraine's entry into NATO, exactly what Russia most strongly opposes.

Therefore, it was not surprising that the next day the Russian embassy in the country announced that it was "surprised by the statements of Minister Petrovska". The statement assured that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine, that Russian troops were being deployed on Russian territory, and accused Kiev of "continuing to stubbornly evade its obligations under the Minsk Agreements." That Petrovska's statement is undiplomatic, tactless and hasty, is assessed by many domestic analysts, with whom one can not disagree.

The example with Croatia shows that the Ukrainian crisis has the potential to polarize not only the states but also the societies in the states, including ours, which can already be seen after the heated debates on social networks. Both sides in the conflict have a dozen arguments in their favor and everyone is "defending" something, Ukraine sovereignty, Russia The Russians in Ukraine, the security of their borders… These arguments can be accepted or rejected, depending on preferences and sympathies, so and current interests, closeness, sentiments…

Anyone can be interpreted as both a bully and a victim, depending on the point of view. The essence is that we do not fall into that trap and become fans, on one side or the other of the conflict, but become fans of peace versus conflict. To support and participate only in the efforts to reach peaceful solutions through diplomacy. Our membership in NATO does not oblige us to see anyone as an aggressor, especially since NATO itself, as an organization, has not declared a common position on this issue. It is clear that Macedonia has close relations with Washington and has high hopes for them to fulfill its strategic goals, but that is not an excuse to run and play the role of a "bigger Catholic than the Pope."

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