What's next if Trump actually gets arrested tomorrow?

Former US President Donald Trump / Photo by EPA-EFE / JUSTIN LANE

Former US President Donald Trump claims he will be arrested tomorrow under the charges arising from the investigation into the payment of $130.000 to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016.

If so, he would be the first former president to face criminal charges.BBC".

Here are some key questions about the issues raised in this case.

What is Trump accused of?

In 2016, famous porn actress Stormy Daniels contacted the media and offered to tell her story about what she said was an adulterous affair she had with Donald Trump in 2006, and how she and his lawyer Michael Cohen paid her $130.000. to be silent.

This is not illegal. However, when Trump reimbursed Cohen, the payment record said it was for legal fees. Prosecutors say this means Trump falsified business records, which is a misdemeanor -- a felony -- in New York.

Prosecutors could also potentially charge that this violates election law, since his attempt to hide the payments to Daniels was motivated by not wanting voters to know he had an affair with her. Concealment by falsifying records would be a felony, which is a more serious charge.

Even the prosecution lawyers admit that this case is quite unclear. There is little precedent for such prosecutions, and past attempts to charge politicians with crossing the line between campaign finance and personal spending have ended in failure.

"It's going to be tough," said Kathryn Christian, a former financial prosecutor for the New York district attorney's office.

Stormy Daniels/ Photo EPA-EFE/PETER FOLEY

Will he really be charged?

The decision whether to file charges rests with New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg. He has empaneled the grand jury to investigate whether there is enough evidence to prosecute, and he is the only one who knows if – or when – an indictment will be announced.

Trump's lawyers said last week that the former president had been offered a chance to appear before a grand jury, seen as a sign that the investigation is nearing completion.

Lawyers for the former president played down suggestions that they or Trump had advance notice of the impending impeachment, saying Trump's comments about it were based on media reports.

Both Michael Cohen and his former legal adviser Robert Costello – now a fierce critic – are expected to testify. Costello will be represented by Trump's defense team in an effort to discredit Cohen's testimony.

Michael Cohen / Photo EPA-EFE/JUSTIN LANE

What will happen if Trump is arrested?

If he is indicted, Trump's lawyers have indicated that standard procedure would follow the former president's arrest. That means he will travel from his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida to appear in court in New York.

Given the historic nature of such a move and the security concerns involved, how it would play out is uncertain — and likely subject to negotiations between the district attorney's office and Trump's team.

Once the case is scheduled and a judge is selected, other details such as the time of the trial and possible travel restrictions and bail requirements for the defendant will be available.

A misdemeanor conviction would result in a fine. If convicted of the felony charge, Trump faces a maximum sentence of four years in prison, though some legal experts predict a fine is more likely and any time behind bars highly unlikely.

Donald Trump at a rally in Texas / photo: EPA-EFE / MICHAEL WYKE

Will there be protests?

After suggesting in a social media post that he would be impeached on Tuesday, Trump issued repeated calls for mass protests from his supporters: “We cannot allow this anymore. They are killing our nation while we sit and watch."

His comments echoed the angry rhetoric he used before the 2021 attack on the US Capitol and raised concerns about the potential for violence.

Bragg is in close contact with the NYPD and courthouse security, according to a letter to his department that was released to the press on Sunday.

"We do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York," he wrote. "Our law enforcement partners will ensure that any specific or credible threats against the office are fully investigated and that appropriate safeguards are in place."

At the moment, however, there is little evidence of the kind of organized mass protests that led to the January 6 attack.

Q-anon shaman Jacob Chanceley Capitol Donald Trump
Photo: EPA-EFE / JIM LO SCALZO

Can he still run for president?

An indictment or even a criminal conviction would not prevent Trump from continuing his presidential campaign if he so chooses.

In fact, there is nothing in US law that prevents a candidate with a prior felony conviction from campaigning and serving as president – ​​even from prison.

However, Trump's arrest will certainly complicate his presidential campaign. While that might cause some Republican voters to rally around their "battle champion," it could be a significant distraction for the candidate on the campaign trail, trying to drum up votes and engage in debates.

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