Withdrawal of the Russian army / Photo Facebook Russian Ministry of Defense

Ukrainian defense in Donbass is crumbling, Russians have a clear advantage in numbers and equipment

The military situation in eastern Ukraine has deteriorated dramatically in recent days. Ukrainian defense lines have collapsed in various sectors of the front. The most attention is being drawn to the fighting near Pokrovsk, where Russian troops have been rapidly gaining territory this week and are now threatening the strategically important city from the west. These breakthroughs bring them closer to their goal of cutting off Pokrovsk from its supply lines, writes the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürich Zeitung.

Further east, the small town of Chasov Yar, which has withstood every Russian offensive for the past two years, is now half in the hands of the Russians, who have swiftly entered the center this week. The fate of this town, militarily important for geographical reasons, seems already sealed. In any case, it has long been almost completely in ruins.

Another important town, Velika Novoselka, 110 kilometers southwest, is likely to fall even faster. Although less well-known to the Western public, it was a significant part of Ukraine's defense lines for three years and a bulwark against further Russian advances in southern Donbass.

Russian Army / Photo Profimedia

After steadily closing in on the district center in recent months, Russian troops last week managed to encircle it on three sides. Over the weekend, a small local airport fell into Russian hands, after which an assault on the central residential areas began. The Ukrainian defenders are apparently cut off from all supply lines, according to world media.

Velika Novoselka is located between three rivers. While this is good for defense, it has now become a trap for the Ukrainians. Once, a road passed here between the provincial capitals of Donetsk and Zaporizhia, intersecting with another route in the north-south direction. Now the connections in all four directions are under Russian control.

The remaining Ukrainian defenders can only hope to reach safety on foot across the terrain and on makeshift rafts across the Mokri Yali River. If Russian military correspondents are to be believed, the Ukrainian retreat is disorganized and associated with heavy losses.

Attempts to help the captured soldiers and open a way for them to retreat have apparently failed. This is evidenced, among other things, by a video of a destroyed armored vehicle in the area that was set on fire by Russian drone pilots.

The current scenario is reminiscent of the costly retreat battles at Avdeevka a year ago and Ugledar in October. In both cases, the high command waited too long in a hopeless situation and ordered a retreat too late.

There is great discontent among some Ukrainians because Kiev seems to have learned nothing. Yuri Butusov, perhaps the most influential Ukrainian observer of the front, speaks of absurd mistakes. His criticism is aimed squarely at the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky and the general in charge of Donbass, Alexander Tarnavsky.

State of the front and positions of the Ukrainian defense around Donbass

Regardless of individual responsibilities, the fact remains that Russian soldiers currently have a clear advantage in numbers and equipment. After the foreseeable fall of Chasov Yar and Velika Novoselka, they will probably be able to translate their superiority into territorial conquest even more clearly than before.

The map above shows how quickly the Kremlin's troops have advanced in this region since October of last year alone. One by one, the Ukrainian bastions of Ugledar, Kurakhovo, and now Velika Novoselka have fallen.

For Ukraine, it is a bitter irony of history that just a year and a half ago, completely different scenarios with much more hope were associated with Velika Novoselka. In the summer of 2023, this city was one of three launch pads for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, in which Western battle tanks were used for the first time. The newly formed Ukrainian combat brigades advanced south from Velika Novoselka along the Mokra Yala valley and captured a dozen villages. But after about ten kilometers, the troops got stuck. Therefore, the counteroffensive failed. All the former territorial gains in this valley were lost.

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