Will Russia, after the victory of the Islamist rebels in Syria and the escape of President Bashar al-Assad, lose the two military strongholds in that country? The question remains open, and the answer is not yet in sight. The Russian president's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on Monday (December 9th) that it was "too early" to talk about it. Russian media reported that the Islamists who seized power in Syria, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, gave Moscow guarantees about the security of military bases. There is no confirmation from other sources. Russia operates two military bases in Syria – the Tartus naval base on the Mediterranean Sea, which is a legacy of the Soviet Union, and the Khmeimim military airbase, established in 2015.

"Currently, movements of transport planes can be observed in Hmeymim, but not to the extent that would indicate a full evacuation," said Gustav Gressel, a former expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank. Russian ships are currently in the Mediterranean "on maneuvers", but not far from Tartus.

"I believe that Russia is negotiating behind the scenes on how to keep the bases in Syria," Gressel told DW.

"If they were to leave them, an evacuation would already be underway."

Is the naval base in Tartus more important?

Austrian military historian Colonel Markus Reisner believes that the naval base in Tartus is "strategically more important" for Russia, as it enables "the deployment of forces in the Mediterranean". Khmeimim Air Base was needed by Moscow to support the Assad regime against the rebels. "But there's no need for that now," explains Reisner.

British political scientist Mark Galeotti, author of the book "Putin's Wars", believes that the two bases are "very important for Russian activities in the Mediterranean and Africa".

"It's interesting how quickly they tried to reach an agreement with HTS," adds Galeotti. Not long ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the group "terrorists," but last weekend Moscow began referring to them as "rebels." Galeotti notes that Moscow's tone toward Islamists in Syria has become "much softer," even before Assad's fall.

What can Moscow offer the rebels?

"Russia is probably hoping for a deal with HTS," says Galeotti. But what can Moscow offer? The rebels, although they have support from Turkey, "do not want to be Turkish pawns" and need allies and relations with other countries, he believes. Russia could play an important role in that.

"The Russians are quite cynical and pragmatic, which gives HTS the opportunity to diversify its dependence on Ankara," adds the British expert.

He also reminds that Russia is not only present in Syria militarily, but also has close economic ties.

Burcu Ozcelik, an expert on the Middle East at the British institute RUSI, does not believe that the Syrian rebels will quickly comply with Russian wishes.

"It is a big question mark that HTS will rush to be perceived as an ally of Vladimir Putin or to give the green light for a long-term Russian military presence on the Syrian coast of the Mediterranean Sea, especially if we take into account that Assad has been granted asylum on Russian territory," he assesses. Cold sores.

She foresees long negotiations in which the regional actors, Russia and Iran, "will try to adjust their foreign policy towards Syria".

Where will the Russian army go from Syria?

If the Russian military does leave Syria, even gradually, where might it go? "They don't have good options," says Mark Galeotti. According to him, Syria during Assad's time was very dependent on Moscow, and there is no similar place in the region.

Among the possible options, Libya is often mentioned, where Russia maintains contacts with General Khalifa Haftar. Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group fought on his side. Western media reported on Russia's alleged intention to establish a naval base in Libya, and it could be located in Tobruk, Marcus Reisner speculates.

Mark Galeotti believes that this option will not be realized quickly, because there is no infrastructure there. The same applies to Sudan, with which Moscow has been negotiating for a naval base on the Red Sea for years. "Wherever they go - Libya, Mali, Sudan - they will not have conditions like in Syria," says the expert.

Limited effects on the war in Ukraine

The following question also arises: if Russia withdraws its troops from Syria, what does this mean for the war in Ukraine? "If we want to be honest, the effects are negligible," says Galeotti. According to him, the number of troops that Moscow can transfer from Syria to the Ukrainian front is insignificant.

"The good news for Ukraine (from Syria) is limited," argued Gustav Gressel. Russia has neither the ability nor the desire to open a second front while waging an all-out war against Ukraine.

"Ukraine will not feel a tangible benefit from the weakening of Iran due to Israeli attacks," the expert believes. The only concrete positive consequence for Kiev could be that "some people in the West are getting braver," but possibly also that "Putin's weakness is making an impression on Trump," Gressel concludes.

But even that remains an open question for him.

Source: Deutsche Welle/ Author: Roman Goncharenko