Our planet hides its scars well, which is a shame because evidence of previous asteroid impacts could help us better prepare for the next catastrophic impact.

James Garvin, chief scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, believes we have misinterpreted the tracks from some of the more serious asteroid impacts that have occurred over the past million years.

If Garvin's predictions are correct, the chances of a giant asteroid hitting Earth could be greater than current estimates suggest. As Garvin said in a presentation at a recent scientific conference: "It would be in the range of serious disasters."

The most famous of all meteor impacts – the impact that killed the dinosaurs and tore a hole in the crust of what is now the Yucatan Peninsula about 66 million years ago – is notable for its destruction of life on Earth.

However, far smaller shocks can still cause extensive damage and potentially lead to years of famine. By some estimates, kilometer-wide asteroids crash into Earth's surface in a flurry of heat and dust every 600.000 years on average. However, estimates are only as good as the data we use to make predictions.

Unfortunately, the geologic record is becoming increasingly difficult to read, all thanks to Earth's dynamic winds and tectonic changes on its surface. Even more recent events can be difficult to interpret due to the accumulation of dust and organisms.

Garvin and his team used a new catalog of high-resolution satellite images to take a closer look at the remains of some of the largest craters formed in the last million years, in an attempt to better estimate their true size. Based on their analysis, a number of these craters have faint rings above what are commonly thought to be their outer rings, actually making them larger than previously thought.

For example, a 12- to 14-kilometer-wide crater in Kazakhstan called Zaminshin is thought to have been created by a 200- to 400-meter-diameter meteorite that struck Earth about 90.000 years ago—the most recent impact. However, based on a new analysis, this large event could have been even more catastrophic, leaving a crater that is actually closer to 30 kilometers in diameter. Science Alert.

The rim diameters of three other large craters have also been recalculated, and all have doubled or tripled in size. All this suggests that kilometer-sized objects fall every few tens of thousands of years.

While we're busy putting systems in place to try to avoid a serious asteroid collision, it looks like Earth's path will be clear for some time to come.

This research was presented at the 2023 Scientific Conference held in The Woodlands, north of Houston, Texas.

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