The population of the EU will decrease by six percent by 2100

Photo: MIA

The population in the EU will decrease by six percent by 2100, that is, by 27,3 million people, Eurostat projections show.

After population declines in 2020 and 2021 due to the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the EU population started to recover during 2022. As a result of the massive influx of refugees from Ukraine following the Russian aggression, the EU population is estimated to have reached 451 million people on 1 January 2023. The peak is expected to be reached in 2026 when it is estimated that 453 million people will live in the Union, after which it will begin to stagnate and decrease, reaching 420 million in 2100.

The number of children and young people (aged 0 to 19) in the total population is projected to decrease from 20 percent at the beginning of 2022 to 18 percent by 2100. The share of working-age people (aged 20-64 years) in the total EU population will fall from 59% in 2022 to 50% in 2100.

In contrast, the share of older age groups (65 and over) will increase. The number of those aged 65-79 is expected to grow from 15% to 17%, and the 80 and over age group is expected to more than double, from 6% to 15%.

 

 

In 2022, the EU population pyramid already shows the shape associated with long life expectancy, low death rates and low birth rates. The largest part of the population consists of able-bodied people over 50 years old, while the share of young people under 20 years old is significantly lower.

The pyramid in 2100, on the other hand, clearly shows a development towards a shrinking and aging society. The share of children and young people under the age of 20 and the working population is falling, and the share of people aged 65 or more is increasing.

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