A lot will change with Trump's re-election. Europeans felt it in the period from 2016 to 2020 and they know what awaits them. There will be less money for wars, business will take precedence over geopolitics, exports will be limited.

Some analysts point out that it would even be a mistake to rely on the experiences of Trump's first term. They say he will be even more radical, suspicious and vindictive, after the way he lost the previous presidential race, writes News. 

It will treat equally all continents, Asia, Africa, Oceania, Europe, putting exclusively American interests in the foreground.

Practically, it also means the entry into force of a real little "commercial war". The goal is to reduce the trade deficit, which amounts to 157 billion euros, to the detriment of Americans in relations with the EU. In this sense, Trump is already talking about the Old Continent as "Little China".

As for China, last year the US imported goods from this country worth 427 billion dollars, and exported only 148 billion dollars.

The question is how much Trump will manage to reduce the deficit through artificial regulation. In his last term, despite the "America First" policy, the US deficit with the EU continued to grow, from 114 billion in 2016 to 152 billion in 2020, an increase of as much as 33 percent.

But Trump is not giving up. In the pre-election campaign, as one of his main measures, he announced the introduction of additional duties of 10 to 20 percent for European products, which is far from even 60 percent for Chinese products, but of course they will significantly burden European exports and the economy. The New World will squeeze the Old Continent.

- The Europeans have a knife in their throat - summed up the European affairs specialist Sébastien Mayard from the French Institute "Jacques Delors".

A similar problem awaits the EU and NATO when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Further arming of Kyiv, knowing Trump, is possible only if the Western European capitals are fine. And even then, Trump, from his point of view as a businessman, will look for all ways to get trade in peace, not to further fan the flames of war. It could easily happen that Trump negotiates peace with Putin, against Europe and Ukrainian interests, the analysis says.

The whole relationship in the North Atlantic Alliance should also be looked at. The transatlantic link will be significantly weakened. Trump, of course, will not withdraw the US from NATO, but it is expected that he will make a revision in which Article 5 on automatic assistance to other members will not be a "sacred letter". His statement against such a policy is known, where he used "strong Montenegrins who know how to be aggressive, and - here we are in the Third World War" as an allegory.

What does this attitude of Trump mean if the war from Ukraine spreads to the Baltic countries, Moldova or some third territory of the Old Continent?

In response to Trump's isolationist policies, the EU is calling for its own strategic autonomy. But how to get there? Members are often like horns in a sack, depending on geopolitical and economic interests. Raw materials and labor are in short supply. They transferred technology through globalization to the Third World, which is now boomeranging back to them. Not to mention the expansion of the electric car industry. Everything requires a decision, but also time.

When it comes to Plan B in regards to the arrival of Trump, it is practically non-existent in an operational sense in Europe. Everything remains to be solved on the fly. In the case of NATO, at least enough has been done to distribute the leadership of the Crisis Group for Ukraine to all members and to some extent to pre-secure funds that are not even remotely sufficient to wage a more serious war with Russia for a long period.

All this, of course, will be the cause of further divisions in the EU, as soon as the relations between Brussels and Washington are further strained.