GERB has seen a drop in electoral support, following US sanctions and the concentration of more scandals over the legacy of its rule, but still remains the leading force with a fragile 2% advantage over Slavi Trifonov's formation. There is such a people (ETN). The BSP is third, but is already almost 4% behind ITN and has a slight advantage over Democratic Bulgaria, which is firmly established as a fourth force. This is shown by the data of "Alpha Research" from the research conducted in the period from May 30 to June 7.

According to opinion polls, the next parliament after the July 11 elections will be fragmented, in which the configuration of at least six parties will probably be repeated, and the nationalists will probably stay out of it, even after their pre-election unification. However, it is very likely that this time the protesting parties will have better positions and will be more successful in trying to meet the expectations of the majority of Bulgarians that the next Parliament will form a government.

Borisov loses support

Following the announcement of US sanctions against prominent Bulgarian businessmen and politicians, support for GERB fell by 2%, the most significant drop for them in such a short period. At the moment, isolation and attacks against GERB are leading to a decline, but not a collapse of its support, according to Alfa Research. The former government is losing its positions not only in Sofia, but also in the regional centers. Their staunch supporters are heavily mobilized, but the wider periphery may not go to the polls.

The absence of ITN and Trifonov from the media and public debates at a time when there was growing interest in open discussions did not allow this party to significantly improve its positions, and the convergence of results with GERB was mainly due to the outflow of support for the party. Borisov, instead of breaking through ETN. The ambiguity, according to the analysis, is increased by the contradictory signals for the future role of Slavi Trifonov himself.

GERB's decline to the hardest core and the retention of support for ITN were also shown by the data from the "Market Links" survey from ten days ago, although the difference between the two parties was slightly larger - about 3,5% in favor of GERB. However, that research was conducted before the introduction of US sanctions.

Unstable electorate

In previous elections, support for Slavi Trifonov was greatly underestimated by opinion polls in Bulgaria. As "Alpha Research" now states, the exit polls from the voting in April showed that a large part of Slavi voters mobilized at the last minute and it can not be ruled out that it will happen again. But at the same time, it is an electorate with "potential instability" and it is possible to reorient it to other protest parties.

At the start of the campaign, the BSP was third, with support at 14,4%, slightly less than the election result in April. According to Alpha Research, the Socialists are failing to increase their result due to two obstacles: demotivating some voters due to intra-party relations, but also radicalizing the left with a growing stance on voting for far-left parties instead of a colorful palette of currents. in a coalition.

"Get up!" Get out! ”Gets 5,3% support. To a large extent, their voters have a similar profile to those of Slavi Trifonov, so an overflow is possible.

On the other hand, the nationalist group of VMRO, NFSB and Volja remains below the 4% support threshold for entering parliament even after their unification before the next election.

Several radical anti-systemic parties, such as Vazrazhdane, Jean Videnov's left-wing union, and Vasil Bozhkov's Bulgarian Summer, are gaining some support. Depending on the degree of political tension, they too may take voters away from the BSP or protest parties, according to Alpha Research.

Who will vote?

Currently, according to Alpha Research, 53,2% of respondents say they will go to the polls, and the percentage is expected to increase slightly during the campaign, but given the summer period, it is difficult to predict accurately. Market Links reported much higher figures last week - 63% of those firmly determined to vote.

An additional element of uncertainty is the undecided. 13-15% of those who want to vote have not yet made a final decision on who to vote for. The intensified political confrontation consolidated the protest and radical voting, but distanced some of the more moderate voters. This is especially true for two groups in the electorate: those who closely monitor the development of the situation after the US sanctions and some ITN voters.

Estimates measured by Alpha Research for the current technical cabinet are much more restrained. Although the positive assessments dominate the negative ones, the majority has a contradictory opinion, which further motivates the position of the next Parliament to form a regular government. 

Taken from "Capital" from Sofia