Five reasons why Ukraine will not join NATO soon

NATO / Photo: Martin Bertrand / Alamy / Alamy / Profimedia

Kyiv responded to Russia's annexation of four Ukrainian regions on Friday by announcing a surprise, accelerated bid to join the NATO military alliance, Euronews points out.

Existing members Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro and North Macedonia support the candidacy. But NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg is understood to have refused to back it, while US security adviser Jake Sullivan said the bid should be shelved.

Five reasons, according to that media outlet, why Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO anytime soon.

Risk of wider war

 

According to Article 5 of NATO's collective defense agreement, if one member state is attacked, all others must consider it an attack on themselves and help their ally. This means that if Ukraine joins NATO while it is still at war with Russia, Article 5 will be triggered.

"There are risks of escalation with Ukraine joining," said John Williams, a professor at Durham University who specializes in international politics, war and sovereignty, warning that it could lead to a "nightmare scenario."

"NATO will become more clearly involved in the war in a much more direct way," he continued, meaning that other members bordering Russia, such as the Baltic states and Poland, could "potentially become the front line."

As Sweden and Finland's bids for NATO membership progressed, Putin threatened to retaliate if NATO deployed troops and infrastructure there. But this current reluctance does not mean closing the door on Ukraine forever. After the war ends, Ukraine can still join the alliance, with Ukraine remaining a credible future member.

"Let's end the conflict first," said Jamie Shay, a former deputy assistant secretary general of NATO. "For now, the key issue is to keep Ukraine as a functional state and expel Russian forces from its territory.

"Let's cook tonight's dinner and take care of next week's dinner later," he added.

NATO membership is "optional" for Ukraine

NATO is already engaged in Ukraine.

Along with tens of billions of euros in military and financial aid from individual NATO member states, the alliance itself provides enormous support to Ukraine by coordinating that bilateral aid and delivering humanitarian and non-lethal aid.

"All these weapons flowing into Ukraine mean that somehow Ukraine now has a guarantee of security in NATO ... without membership."

"Sometimes you can get a lot of benefits from NATO membership without actually joining," he added, citing the example of Kosovo, which was backed by alliance peacekeepers in the late 1990s.

The same applies to the nuclear threat, suggests Prof. Williams.

After Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's comments that Russia should use low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Washington said it would respond strongly, and former CIA director David Petraeus said the US would destroy Russian troops in Ukraine and sink all their Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine is "not ready" for NATO membership

Before joining NATO, countries must first meet certain economic, political and military standards. According to Prof. Williams, Ukraine still has a long way to go before meeting these membership criteria, citing "problems" with "democratic institutions" and "anti-corruption processes" in the country.

"Until recently, elections in Ukraine were quite corrupt ... and until recently there were massive street protests that tried to put Ukraine on the path to becoming a modern, liberal, democratic European country," he said.

"This time it looks safe now." Putin guarantees it. But it's a long way, the political institutions in Ukraine have work to do."

Ukraine's bid to join the European Union faces similar difficulties, with concerns about whether it will meet the bloc's standards and expectations. Still, there are hopes that the war will improve Ukraine's ability to meet NATO's demands, particularly militarily.

"Ukraine will come out of this with probably one of the best armies in NATO because it has received a lot of Western equipment and training," says Shay.

That will make her a "more attractive candidate" in the long run, he added.

It is difficult to get all NATO members to support Ukraine's candidacy

According to NATO rules, new members can only be accepted if all 30 members agree. Even if someone disagrees, it can hinder – or even derail – the entire process. Sweden and Finland faced this difficulty with their own bids for NATO membership, with Turkey raising objections. Similarly, Hungary could prove to be a problem for Ukraine's membership bid.

The countries, which share a land border, have a long-standing dispute over the rights of the Hungarian-speaking minority in Ukraine.

Since 2017, when Ukraine made Ukrainian a compulsory language in primary schools, Hungary has repeatedly blocked Ukraine's attempts to integrate into both NATO and the EU.

"Orbán is a man who will cause problems if he feels he has the support of the public," says Shay. "Look at his actions in the EU".

Orbán has repeatedly criticized the West's strategy towards Russia and has positioned himself as an ally of Putin, criticizing the use of sanctions and the conclusion of gas deals with Moscow.

Attitudes in other European capitals are also a problem.

"The big question is whether France and Germany would agree," said William Alberc, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. "Will they be willing to go that far?"

In 2008, Paris and Berlin blocked attempts by Ukraine and Georgia to join the alliance, while in February 2022 – just a week before the invasion – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Ukraine's membership was not on the table.

That would be a "propaganda victory" for Putin

Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Putin has pushed the line that Russia is threatened by NATO. He routinely justifies the invasion of Ukraine as saving Russia from this threat, which he says is a threat to Russia's territorial integrity.

If Ukraine joins NATO's Integrated Defense Plan, it will involve the deployment of Western troops and military bases on Ukrainian territory.

"It will give Putin a huge propaganda boost," he said. "Putin is trying hard, even desperately, to convince the Russians that there is an external existential threat from NATO ... accepting Ukraine now will simply continue that narrative."

"Who wants to give Putin an olive branch?" Shay asks.

NATO officials and Western politicians have repeatedly made it clear that the war in Ukraine is a conflict between Kyiv and Moscow, and US President Joe Biden has said he will not drag the alliance into a wider conflict over Ukraine.

There were fears that this "propaganda victory" would come at an inopportune time, given Ukraine's lightning-fast progress on the battlefield and anti-war sentiment in Russia. Although he strongly supported Ukraine's bid for membership, Alberk commented: “Putin is making his own nightmares come true across Europe...Ukraine has joined the West, turned its back on it forever, Finland and Sweden have also turned to NATO.

"I mean, he (Putin) is just very good at shooting himself in the foot," he added.

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