Kamala Harris has not only maintained her higher approval rating over Donald Trump, but is increasing her lead, suggesting that the shift in the Democratic presidential nominee is having more profound effects than expected.

A new Ipsos poll shows that if the election were held now rather than in November, Harris would win 42 percent of the vote and Trump 37 percent. This is a record margin in favor of the Democratic candidate, which incumbent President Joe Biden has never achieved while running for a new term. The difference is also higher than the poll's threshold of possible error of three percent.

An Ipsos-Reuters poll conducted on July 22 and 23, shortly after the Democratic candidate's switch, showed Harris with a 37 percent to 34 percent lead. Republicans argued at the time that the 3 percent advantage was not real, but the result of increased interest in the turmoil in the top Democrats. The new survey was conducted from August 2 to 7 among 2.045 voters.

As election day approaches, support for the third candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is waning. The independent candidate with a stable rating of around 8 percent reached 10 percent in July, but now barely 4 percent of respondents would vote for him.

Harris leads in the uncertain states

If the election were held now, Harris would likely be elected president, as she leads Trump 42 percent to 40 percent in the seven swing states that have proven key to the 2020 winner — Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan , Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Ipsos did not release the ratio of Harris and Trump in each state separately.
Republican strategists are already rethinking the approach in states they see as key. Republicans had hoped for victories in Minnesota and Virginia, states that typically go Democratic, but are now forced to defend their position in traditionally undecided states like Pennsylvania and Georgia.

– The race is no longer the same. Many of us wanted a matchup with Joe Biden. We felt in good shape - Corey Lewandowski, a longtime adviser to former President Trump, told Reuters.

Lewandowski, however, maintains that Trump still has a slight lead.

Trump's advisers publicly claim that "there is not much difference between Biden and Harris" and that the focus is to criticize the liberality of the new candidate. But Reuters reports the views of nine Republican sources that Harris is "a much tougher opponent than Biden."

- It is clear to everyone that she can win - said an anonymous member of Trump's campaign staff.

The main problem for Trump is that he can no longer be presented as more vital and dynamic than his opponent. It's a testament to Harris' energy that he animated wavering Democratic voters, and especially that he raised hundreds of millions of dollars in donations in just a few days.

Trump is looking for duels on "his turf"

Republicans, however, do not panic and are convinced that their candidate is about to win.

- Trump's team has ads in all federal states that are traditional battlegrounds, and with activists on the ground we expanded the political map with traditional "blue states" such as Minnesota or Virginia - said Anna Kelly, representative of the Republican Party.

Trump personally feels that he can present himself better in front of the public in a duel with Harris, as he made a much better impression in the duel with Biden on June 27 on CNN. The first direct televised duel between the new opponents is scheduled for September 10 on ABC television, but Trump has requested at least two more confrontations, on September 4 and September 25, on Fox News and NBC television. ".

Harris has said she is open to more than one face-off with Trump, but her staff has ruled out the possibility of the candidate appearing on Fox News.

Trump is more active than Harris on social media and appears much more often on television with interviews and answers to questions, but only on channels he considers close, primarily Fox. Harris prefers to answer questions from journalists after public appearances and meetings with citizens.