New study: 90 percent of patients will have a new type of covidium 19 by mid-January

epa08889969 Shoppers in Covent Garden in London, Britain, 17 December 2020. The highest tier for coronavirus rules, Tier 3, has been extended across southern England ahead of the Christmas break. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has urged people to keep Christmas celebrations short and small to reduce the risk of spreading Covid-19 coronavirus over the festive period. EPA-EFE / NEIL HALL

England could face more deaths in the first half of 2021 than in 2020 if it does not speed up its vaccination program and introduce even tougher measures against the coronavirus, according to an analysis by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Scientists made a study, using previous data and mathematical model, to predict the course of a pandemic following the discovery of the highly contagious coyote species 19.

If current trends continue, scientists have concluded that 90 percent of patients will have a new type of covidate 19 by mid-January.

They considered what would happen under various restrictive measures and concluded that aIf the whole of England was placed below the four-point limit between 26 December and 31 January, the number R could not fall below one, reports the Guardian.

The number R indicates the average number of people that can infect a person, and when that number is above one, then exponential growth is present.

The only scenario that would reduce the impact on the health system is to introduce level four by December 26, close schools by the end of January and vaccinate two million people a week.

The study, which has yet to be reviewed and published in the academic journal, was presented to individual health organizations.

The scientists also say that the new species, which appeared in London, east and southeast of England, is 56% more contagious than the previous one, but there is no indication that it is more deadly.

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