While the attention of the American and world public is rightly focused on the outcome of the US presidential election, the Democrats and Republicans are in an uncertain battle for majorities in both houses of Congress, which is still a powerful mechanism for controlling the executive branch of the White House. a house.

In addition to the president, on October 5 Americans will also vote for a completely new composition of the House of Representatives, for a third of the seats in the Senate, for governors of 11 federal states and two territories, as well as on various issues in a series of district and local referenda and elections.

Although they are held at the same time, the results of the congressional and senatorial elections do not always coincide with those of the presidential elections, because the candidates focus on policies at the federal level, rather than on each state separately.

The elections for 435 congressmen in the House of Representatives are simpler, because they are completely "from scratch". The composition of the lower house is fluctuating, as it is voted on every two years – once in parallel with the election of the president and once again exactly halfway through his mandate.

Republicans are now in a position to defend a narrow majority of nine congressmen in the current House of Representatives. Now they have 222 congressmen, compared to 213 members of the Democratic party.

Battle for the House of Representatives

In the 2020 election, when Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the presidential race, the result was the opposite - Democrats won 222 seats and Republicans 213. The ratio only superficially matched that of delegates in the Electoral College. Democratic congressmen received 77,1 million votes, even 4 million less than Biden won, and Republicans received 72,4 million, which is 1,8 million less than Trump won.

Republicans in 2022 made a turnaround and reached 222 congressmen, which is not surprising, because Americans at the halfway point of a president's term usually vote for congressmen of the opposing party, as an important, but not decisive, expression of dissatisfaction with the policies of the White House , and as an attempt to more tightly control the power of the president. The midterm reversals are also a product of Americans' significantly weaker motivation to vote. In 2022, by comparison, Republicans won with 54,2 million votes, compared to 51,3 million for Democrats. That is 20 million less compared to 2020, when at the same time citizens elected a president.

On November 5, there will be a vote for a total of 435 congressmen from 50 federal states. Six non-voting delegates to Congress are elected in the District of Columbia (the capital) and populated US territories. Pre-election polls indicate that the Democrats will surely win 167 seats in the House of Representatives, and the Republicans in 174. As in the presidential elections, only the results of the battle for the remaining 94 seats are decisive. Barring an uncertain battle, it indicates that no party can reach the 290-seat supermajority that allows amendments to the Constitution to be passed and any law or measure imposed by the president to be blocked. The supermajority also enables the dismissal of the president, if previously the majority of the cabinet plus the vice president declare that the head of state is unable to perform his duties properly.

Duels for congressmen

Of the 94 seats identified in the polls as uncertain, experts indicate that a new congressman from the opposite party will be elected in 34. Particularly interesting battles are expected in five constituencies. In New York's 1th Ward, a Democratic bastion state, Republican Anthony Deposito is defending against Democratic challenger Laura Gillen. In North Carolina 30, Democrat and military veteran Don Davis is being challenged by Republican Laurie Buckhut, who is a retired Army colonel and a newcomer to the political scene. This unit is considered part of the "black belt", all congressmen in the past 1883 years have been African-American, and a Republican last won in XNUMX. But now the electoral districts have been redrawn, at the initiative of civil society organizations in order to reduce the voting power of African Americans.

A surprise is also possible in California 27, which is traditionally won by Democrats. But Donald Trump recently came straight to Coachella to support local congressman, former pilot Mike Garcia, in his battle against Democrat George Whitesides, who was NASA's chief of staff.

In (the federal state of) Washington 3, a rematch is expected in the duel between Marie Glusenkamp Perez and Joe Kent, after the Democrat won in 2020 with the narrowest majority of votes in history.

Each cycle, of course the most striking is the election in Alaska because the largest federal state delegates only one congressman. In 2022, Mary Peltola became the first Native American woman to enter Congress, as well as the first Democrat from Alaska since 1972.

Republicans win the Senate

Even more uncertain is the race to win the Senate, where Democrats now hold a 1-vote advantage thanks to the support of four senators who declare themselves independent. Out of a total of 34 seats that will be voted on November 5, the Democrats defend 24 seats, and the Republicans 10. A total of 15 Democratic senators, nine Republicans, and two independent candidates have decided to defend their positions. Experts expect the majority to shift to the Republicans, as three of their candidates attack Democratic senatorial positions in states that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. There is, on the other hand, not a single Democrat running for a Republican senator in a state won by Joe Biden. Polls suggest that out of 34 seats, one independent candidate will retain the seat, Democrats will win 15 and Republicans will win 14, which would be enough to change the majority, regardless of how the remaining uncertain battles for four more seats end.

The greatest interest is in the battles in the "swinging" federal states that will decide the outcome of the presidential duel - in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

New governors in 11 states

Americans in 11 federal states and two territories will also elect governors. Eight of these states have had Republican governors and three Democratic governors. Polls indicate that Delaware and Washington will re-elect Democratic governors, while Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Utah and West Virginia will remain Republican. Democrats are expected to take control of North Carolina and Republicans in Vermont, while Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig face a tie in New Hampshire.