Machines can replace 300 million workers, but also raise productivity and quality of life
Artificial intelligence could replace a quarter of the workforce in Europe and the United States, but also increase the value of products and services globally by 7 percent. It would mean creating more value with much fewer working hours, but also the possibility of creating new jobs
The global artificial intelligence revolution has the potential to replace 300 million people with full-time jobs, which does not mean that all those people will be pushed out of jobs and a global army of unemployed will be created, according to a report by the investment bank "Goldman Sachs". .
Smart machines, according to projections, could replace a quarter of the workforce in Europe and the United States, but also increase the value of products and services globally by 7 percent. It would mean creating more value with much fewer working hours, but also the possibility of creating new jobs.
- Generative artificial intelligence, capable of creating content equivalent to that created by human labor, is a major advance - the report of the influential investment bank states.
AI potential varies from one manufacturing sector to another. The report points out that machines and algorithms can automate 46 percent of work tasks in the administrative sector and 44 percent in the legal sector, but only 6 percent in construction and 4 percent in maintenance.
Governments around the world, especially in the most industrially developed countries, are trying to include artificial intelligence in the production system as quickly as possible, but also to reassure the public that workers will not be laid off en masse. The biggest headache for the authorities is to create regulations to prevent the "wild" use of AI and to limit the effect of its development on society.
– Artificial intelligence will finally boost productivity in the economy. We want to ensure that artificial intelligence complements the way we work in the UK, not disrupts it, so that jobs are not eliminated, but upgraded - said the UK's technology secretary, Michelle Donnellan.
People in many professions fear that machines will be installed in their workplaces. Even artists complain that the algorithms for generating images and recordings will "take their bread."
- One thing I am sure of is that there is no way to estimate how many jobs will be filled by generative artificial intelligence - says Carl Benedict Frey from the University of Oxford.
He points out that the Chatjipity AI algorithm, for example, enables people of modest abilities to create essays and articles.
- Journalists face competition, which will lower their salaries, unless there is a serious need for more such products. Such was the case with the introduction of satellite navigation technology in cars and the creation of platforms such as Uber. Almost overnight, knowing all the streets of London was no longer a professional asset. The wave of new drivers has reduced the wages of experienced drivers by at least 10 percent. In the next few years, artificial intelligence will probably cause similar effects in a wider range of creative activities - explains Frey.
He concludes that in the case of GPS and Uber, the technology has not driven out drivers or reduced their numbers but lowered wages. Those who invested in new technologies, on the other hand, got more production with less costs.
The Goldman Sachs report cited another study's conclusion that 60 percent of the workforce today is in jobs that did not exist in 1940. Another study shows that after the technology boom of the XNUMXs, new jobs were created more slowly than workers were laid off.
– If generative artificial intelligence behaves like previous information technology advances, it may cause higher unemployment in the near future. The long-term effects of AI are extremely uncertain, so you should take all estimates with a great deal of reserve - says analyst Torsten Bell.
He adds that everything will depend on the development of technology, but also on the way and speed of its integration into the production process.
– We cannot say that artificial intelligence will not change the way we work. But we should focus on the potential to improve living standards as a result of increased production and cheaper services, as well as the risk of falling behind if other firms and economies adapt faster and better to the technological revolution - says Bell.