Michel Barnier is going down in the history of France as the shortest-lived prime minister, with a term of barely three months, but the overthrow of the government is only part of a much more important battle for the Elysée Palace, and for the main position in all of Europe.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has held the centrist Barnier's minority government hostage since its formation, and has decided to topple it now, less than four months before the crucial March 31 - the Monday on which her verdict on abuse of power will be announced. funds from the European Parliament. Prosecutors sought a prison sentence but also a five-year ban from holding public office, which would have eliminated Le Pen from the 2027 presidential race.

Marine Le Pen ran for president three times and lost three times – once in the first round and twice in a direct duel with Macron. But analysts agree that Le Pen is now in the best position to defeat the incumbent president, whose centrists have suffered two defeats in a row – to the united left in parliament and a disastrous one in the MEPs vote.

The only obstacle on Le Pen's path to the Elysée Palace is also insurmountable. President Macron, in the face of the political gnat with the dissolution of parliament in June, in the face of bypassing the left when he gave the prime minister's mandate, and in the face of the quick death of the minority government blackmailed by the right, categorically claims that he has no intention of stepping down before the end of his term in 2027.

The vote of no confidence in Barnier's government is only the first move in Le Pen's delicate game, in an attempt to put unbearable pressure on Macron, while at the same time giving the impression that he is doing it to save France and not for his own personal political gain. comment analysts in Paris.

- It is clear that this has nothing to do with Barnier, but with her attempt to overthrow and weaken Macron, apparently for the purpose of realizing her personal ambition to become president. Pressing a vote of no confidence in the government also carries a significant risk, because people are now wondering if it is really acting in the interests of the country, or in its own interest - Armin Steinbach, a professor at the elite Paris university HEC, told the BBC.

Le Pen is still acting with restraint, even saying that she is "not mistress of the clock" and does not dictate the agenda.

- I am not asking for the resignation of Emmanuel Macron - said Le Pen, although all her attacks, including arguments for rejecting the budget proposed by Barnier, are aimed at convincing the public that the president is to blame for both the political and economic crisis in France.

The extreme right blames Macron, above all, for the dissolution of parliament in June, after which three political blocs with relatively equal strength emerged in the snap elections. Philippe Olivier, an adviser to the National Assembly, described Macron in an interview with "Le Monde" as "a fallen republican monarch who, bare-chested and with a noose around his neck, is leading another dissolution of parliament."

Barnier, meanwhile, fell over efforts to stabilize the situation, presenting an austerity budget aimed at reducing a galloping deficit that exceeded 6 percent of gross domestic product. The prime minister, as several times before in his short term, accepted conditions set by the right in order to push through measures, but categorically opposed the request that threatened the budget.

- The budget is not a wish list - said Barnier, before referring to the article of the Constitution that allows him to impose the budget without the support of the majority in the National Assembly.

The same article opened the possibility for the parties to urgently request a vote of no confidence in the government, and this was accepted by both the right and the left.

The hot chestnut is once again in the hands of President Macron, who, according to the Constitution, must wait a year, until June c, to dissolve the parliament again. Macron will be able to provoke political opponents and hand Barnier the mandate again, which is the least likely, or push for a new majority of the centrists, together with one of the more moderate parties in the left-wing bloc. If the centrists fail to break the fragile unity of the leftists, France will have to get a technocratic government that will lead the country at least until June, that is, until the new extraordinary elections. Governing on an inadequate budget can only deepen the financial crisis and increase pressure on Macron to step down. Such an option is preferred by the National Assembly of Le Pen, as well as by the citizens. According to the results of a new poll, as many as 62 percent of French citizens believe that the president should resign if Barnier's government falls.

If Macron decides to step down, presidential elections would have to be held within 30 days. And while it suits Macron to stay in power as long as possible, Le Pen is in a rush to challenge the president again, not only because of the court ruling on March 31, but also because her party leadership is at stake. Analysts are convinced that if Macron lasts in the Elysee Palace until 2027, he will not be challenged by Le Pen, but by the 29-year-old energetic and ultra-popular Jordan Bardella, who is currently watching the developments from a safe distance as an MEP.

The possible consequences of the duel between Macron and Le Pen go beyond the borders of France. The European Union will suffer great political and economic damage if France, one of the locomotives, is without a functional government for half a year, with a huge deficit. The time is critical, because the other and more powerful European locomotive - Germany, which will elect a successor to outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz in February - is also in "defect". Europe's burden will increase even earlier, on January 20, when Donald Trump - the man who persistently threatens Europe with trade tariffs and Ukraine with the withdrawal of huge aid in weapons and money for the war with Russia - will take the presidential oath in Washington. . The biggest burden of the change in American policy on Ukraine would fall on the shoulders of France, the largest military power in the European Union.
Macron reassures the public with expressions of confidence in the power and capacities of the state.

- We should not scare people with such things, we have a strong economy. France is a rich and solid country, which implemented many reforms and adheres to them, with stable institutions and a stable Constitution - said Macron from Saudi Arabia.