How much does Putin's alarm increase the risk of nuclear war?

Photo: Profimedia

Those who know the situation in and around the Kremlin warn that the Russian president is very close to finding himself in such a desperate situation, after having made a series of wrong moves related to the invasion of neighboring Ukraine and trying to press the "red button". .

Believing that he could also be a military commander, Vladimir Putin set out to conquer Ukraine with a limited military contingent in the so-called "special military operation". Even though he was trained as a KGB operative, he and those around him who had passed through the secret Soviet and Russian services did not believe and had no knowledge that the "brothers" Ukrainians would resist and fiercely.

And they did not believe that the West would achieve and maintain unity not only to help Ukraine, but also to establish sanctions that have never been imposed on anyone.

However, the latest warnings came from former German Chancellor Angela Merkel who suggested that Putin may be telling the truth, that if Russia is forced to defend itself it could use nuclear weapons. This expressly imposed the dilemma in the world public as to whether these threats are actually true or a Russian bluff for a possible nuclear war.

Missiles 300 s EPA-EFE/MAXIM SHIPENKOVSHIPENKOV

Military rhetoric is louder around "nuclear"

The counter-offensive of the Ukrainian forces and the return of part of the previously occupied Ukrainian territory exposed the failed military tactics. Fighting with inexperienced boys, gathered soldiers from Asian minority groups from distant Siberian expanses, or with domestic or foreign mercenaries, proved to be an unsuccessful recipe, so the Ukrainian counter-offensive revealed a chaotic state in the ability of the Russian army.

All of this suggests that Russia and Vladimir Putin are facing a possible setback. To replenish the military, which has suffered heavy losses and is facing widespread desertion, Putin has ordered the mobilization of 300 new soldiers. But he intensified the military rhetoric, so now he and those around him are increasingly talking about the use of Russian nuclear weapons.

In this context, in the last address to the Russian public, he threatened that Russia will use all its available military power, including nuclear weapons, if it feels threatened. Adding at the same time, that it is not a question of bluff.

Missiles 300 s EPA-EFE/MAXIM SHIPENKOV

Blackmail from Russia or a new bluff of the green choya?

The President of Ukraine Volodmir Zelensky, on the other hand, believes that it is "quite possible that Russia will carry out its threat, because Putin wants to scare the world". According to Zelensky, it is about nuclear blackmail from the Russian side and that the Russian president is not bluffing when he talks about intervention with nuclear weapons.

And this is confirmed by the former prime minister and one term president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev.

After the war began, his boss Putin began to use him as a sort of interpreter of his views. This time, Medvedev confirms that there is no bluffing in Putin's threats and that everyone should know that, but also warns that "Russia will do everything so that "Nazi" Ukraine does not get nuclear weapons"!?

However, the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell believes that the frequent nuclear rhetoric coming from the Kremlin by Putin himself and his ilk should not be underestimated and that all such threats should be taken seriously. This experienced diplomat says that the war has reached a dangerous point, because after seven months of war, Russia is suppressed and oppressed, but also humiliated, and the Russian president responds to that with a nuclear threat.

Use of tactical nuclear weapons more than possible

Military experts, however, believe that Putin does not want a total nuclear war, but that he is threatening a tactical nuclear explosion on Ukrainian territory.

It is a tactical nuclear weapon with small nuclear explosives, designed to be used on the front, or for a limited nuclear attack. It destroys targets and people in a limited area and this weapon does not cause contamination on a large scale.

The power of the smallest tactical nuclear warhead is up to one kiloton of TNT. That means like an explosion of a thousand tons of classic dynamite. The nuclear arsenal, by the way, also contains strategic nuclear nuclear weapons that are more powerful and move up to a thousand kilotons and are aimed at greater distances up to a thousand kilometers. The Soviet one of 58 megatons is considered the most destructive thermonuclear explosion so far. The American bomb dropped on Hiroshima in August 1945 had a yield of 15 kilotons.

The threat should not be underestimated

Otherwise, it is believed that Russia has about two thousand tactical nuclear bombs that can be mounted on conventional warheads of missiles and even grenades and can be launched from both ships and aircraft. But tactical nuclear weapons have never before been used anywhere in a military conflict. None of the dozen nuclear countries in the world wanted and were not ready to take the responsibility of being the first to use nuclear weapons to win. The assessment of military and security experts is that this time there is a real threat of using nuclear weapons, because Vladimir Putin is less desperate to say that he will defend the territory of Russia from attack. At the same time, he considers as Russia the occupied countries in Eastern and Southern Ukraine from Crimea, through Donbass and Hershon to Zaporozhye, which after the fake referendums, it simply annexed as Russian territory.

However, if this were to happen, the US and others in the West are announcing a "fierce response", but it is largely unknown what kind of response Putin would receive and how far allies are willing to go to punish him for his intention to use of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine.

 

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