Kiev has long sought permission to use long-range Western weapons against Russia that Moscow has already taken precautions in case those bans are lifted. There are strong indications that the US and Britain are preparing within days to lift a ban on Ukraine using long-range missiles against targets in Russia.

Ukraine already has stocks of these missiles, but is limited to their use exclusively against Russian enemy targets within its own borders, that is, for the time being, it is not allowed to operate on Russian territory. For weeks, Kiev has been seeking permission from the Western allies who donated these missiles to lift those restrictions so they can target targets in Russia.

The question is openly asked why the West is hesitating and what could the use of these missiles mean and in what direction could it direct the course of the war?

What is a "storm shadow"?

"Storm Shadow" is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of about 250 kilometers. The French call it "scalp". Britain and France have already sent these missiles to Ukraine – but with the caveat that Kiev can only target targets within its own borders.

They are dropped from an aircraft and then slowly fly at the speed of sound, carefully following the terrain, before descending and detonating a high-explosive warhead.

The Storm Shadow is considered an ideal weapon for breaching fortified bunkers and ammunition depots, such as those used by Russia in its war against Ukraine. But each missile costs nearly $1 million, so they are usually used as part of carefully planned strikes by much cheaper drones sent in advance to confuse and tire enemy air defenses, as Russia is doing with Ukraine.

They were used with great results when the Russian Black Sea naval headquarters at Sevastopol were hit, making Crimea unsafe for the Russian Navy.

Justin Crump, a military analyst and former British Army officer, says that "Storm Shadow has proven to be a very effective weapon for Ukraine, accurately hitting well-protected targets in occupied territory."

"It is not surprising that Kiev has sought its use in Russia, particularly to target airfields used for cruise bomb attacks, as they have recently impeded the incursion of the Ukrainian front line," he says.

Why is Ukraine looking for them right now?

Ukrainian cities and the front line were targeted by daily Russian bombing. Many of the rockets and cruise bombs wreaking havoc on military outposts, apartment blocks and hospitals have been fired from Russian aircraft deep inside Russia itself.

Kiev complains that because it is not allowed to target the bases from which these attacks are launched, it appears to be forced to fight this war with one hand tied behind its back, which makes Russia's military air bases better protected. from Ukrainian civilians.

Ukraine has developed its own innovative and efficient long-range drone program. Drone attacks occasionally manage to catch Russians off guard and reach hundreds of kilometers inside Russia.

But they can only carry a small load of explosives and most of them have been detected and intercepted. Kiev claims that if it wants to suppress and neutralize Russian air attacks, it needs long-range missiles, including "Storm Shadow", but also similar systems, including the American ATAKMS, which has an even greater range of 300 kilometers.

Why has the West so far been hesitant to allow the use of these missiles?

Washington is concerned that while all of Vladimir Putin's threatened red borders have so far turned out to be empty bluffs, if he gives Ukraine permission to hit targets deep inside Russian territory with missiles sent from the West, it will lead to escalation and open the possibility for Russia to fiercely retorted.

The fear in the White House is that hardliners in the Kremlin could insist that retaliation take the form of strikes on transit points for missiles en route to Ukraine, such as an air base in Poland.

If this scenario occurs, the West will be forced to invoke Article 5 of NATO, which would mean that the alliance is at war with Russia.

Ever since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the White House's goal has been to provide Kiev with as much support as possible without being drawn into direct conflict with Moscow, which could serve as a prelude to the unthinkable: a devastating exchange of fire with nuclear weapons.

However, the White House has committed Ukraine to using missiles sent from the West against targets in Crimea and four partial areas illegally annexed by Russia in 2022.

And while Moscow considers these regions part of its territory, neither the US nor the international community recognize that right.

What could missiles change?

Many believe that the help and permission to use these missiles came "too late, too little."

Kiev has long sought permission to use Western long-range weapons in Russia, leaving room for Moscow to take timely precautions in case those bans are lifted.

It moved the bombers, missiles and some of the infrastructure that supports them deeper into Russian territory out of range of these missiles, away from the border with Ukraine and out of the range of the "storm shadow".

However, some military analysts also say that while Russian air defenses have since evolved to counter the threat of a "storm shadow" in Ukraine itself, that task will be much more difficult given the extent of Russian territory that can now be attacked.

"It will complicate military logistics, command and control, and air support, and even if Russian aircraft retreat deeper behind Ukraine's borders to avoid the missile threat, they will still face wasted time and higher costs after the first strike." .on the "front line".

Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal Joint Services Institute, believes lifting the ban will bring two main benefits to Ukraine.

First, it can "unlock" another system, ATAKMS. Second, it will present a dilemma for Russia on where to place that precious air defense, which it claims will facilitate intrusion by Ukrainian drones.

When all is said and done, Storm Shadow is unlikely to change the course of the war, Saville concludes.