The last post on "China vs. USA" attracted enormous influence, which I can honestly understand to some extent. Whereas many, rightfully so, have had their own view which they have attempted, anecdotally not empirically, to assert as correct, without going into taking sides and although I felt that perhaps this should be part of the final part of this series , I decided to pass it on now though. That, my dears, is the view of not just anyone but one of China's most famous military theorists and a professor at China's most prestigious military school, Major General Zhan Shaozong. In one of the few analyzes of this scale made sometime before 2015, in a projection from that time for 2020, the Chinese expert ranks China behind the United States and Russia. According to his projections, China will still be the second-ranking military superpower until sometime in 2049. However, there is a big "but" here, because of three things.

Three things why China is a major global player

First, deception and secrecy, and thus the surprise factor, are one of the characteristics and specificities by which China is recognizable. Second, the time in which this projection was made does not correspond to several important events and turning points. And finally, the rate of technological progress is unknown – in other words, the speed at which China is developing does not correspond to the Major General's projection. This, in turn, forces us to stick to the course of analysis within the framework we have set as a presupposition from the previous debate on the topic. While the comparison of potential military capability on water dominated the last issue, here we will focus on land capabilities. On land, China dominates in terms of mass. However, this does not mean that it is superior.

Several cross-analyses of land capacity provide similar data from which it can be concluded that China has a serious and respectable land potential. With a ground force of about 915.000, almost double that of the United States, China has the largest army in the world. If the principle of mass was decisive, then China is the winner. But according to many experts, as well as historically, mass has not always been the winner. President Xi's statement, in 2015, about the reduction of the total military personnel by about 300.000, while Biden announced the reduction of about 5.400 soldiers, is probably in that direction. China's ground forces, however, still have disproportionately outdated equipment compared to that of the United States. It is a fact that digitization, which is the fastest growing in China on a global level, is a key "game changer", but it is also a fact that for now not all members of the Chinese army have modern weapons. This conclusion is drawn by almost all serious intelligence analyses, as well as the analysis of budgets, where against the official US military budget of 767,8 billion dollars, China has 270 billion dollars. Even if the additions that some analysis centers (we would say justified) are attributed to China, at most it doubles a little less than 300 billion dollars.

Modernization of military capacities in response to threats

In this context, prospectively, if China continues with this pace of increasing the military budget, it will have a serious jump already in five years (in 2027) when it is also the centenary of the founding of the Chinese People's Army. According to several cross-analyses and according to the latest analysis from the beginning of 2022, the United States leads in the iron fist, and in terms of the number of tanks – 6.330 operational, compared to 5.800 tanks that China has. What we still have to take with a dose of skepticism is the information coming from China, and that goes both ways. In other words, while China wants to present a false image of how advanced it really is in order to feed the principle of surprise in a potential duel, at the same time China needs propaganda.

In addition to the massive automation and digitization of all land weaponry, China last month demonstrated serious artillery capability in military tests in the Gobi desert. According to Chinese sources, China demonstrated indirect fire supported by a Chinese-made howitzer with accurate shooting at a distance of 30 kilometers. According to a report by China National Television, the howitzer has a digitalized fire control system.

Here is the key in the analysis which, in addition to the distance, is an important calculating factor. Namely, Russia showed why, despite everything, artillery remains the queen of warfare in Ukraine. Many have already emphasized that the USA has a serious vacuum in relation to Russia in this regard, not only in distance, but also in the capacity that can be delivered in a unit of time. Thus, if the US Paladin system (self-propelled maneuverable howitzer) can fire one projectile per minute, the comparative Russian system 2S35 Kolitsiya, 152 mm, according to live combat tests (in Ukraine) fires between 9 and 16 grains per minute up to 40 kilometers without assistance.

In that direction, the lessons identified from Ukraine so far indicate that the focus in the development of the land component will be placed on systems that enable precise action at a distance.

The West is "awake" to the challenges from the East

Well, now, there are two big "buts" here again. First, as we saw when we talked about the capacity of the HIMRAS systems, although they provide an operational turnaround effect, a number is needed. Second, the Chinese system is only a test, and that's according to data served by Chinese television. How much of all that is believable remains to be seen. On top of that is the serious deficit that China has, and that is the possibility to feed the large land component with modern systems, because otherwise the imposing number that is glorified in the everyday sidelines is just cannon fodder for modern combat systems. We would add here that since 2020, the USA is already testing the so-called ERKA system, which is an advanced version of the "Paladin" howitzer with a capacity of 60 km and 9 grains per minute. Accuracy unlike any other is up to a remarkable 1m from the target. Those who know what we are talking about already understand the advantage.

First, unlike China's (and partly Russia's) tests, which are only on pieces of artillery, the test that the US promoted in 2020 involved artillery fire on a division as part of a corps (the numbers involved in the whole exercise are about 12.000 soldiers ) in which these systems (used by two battalions of about 500 men – not just three guns as China presented them) demonstrated and tested the power in combined warfare. Here, in fact, is the key to the difference between the United States and China. It is the power to combine the different systems and fit them into a combat concept. Not to mention the horror of logistics that befell the Russians before they learned in Ukraine that the centralization (especially in logistics) that is present in China is "death" to modern warfare.

China has also made a quantum leap in what is known in the US as ground military aviation, which serves partly for vertical maneuver but also for close air support. Note that it is not military aviation, although in China it is counted there. The dominance of the United States separately, if it can be analyzed that way at all, in this part of the armed forces is decreasing significantly, with China also raising its capacity in this area. Considering that there is still no training or combat test of land aviation, we will do the analysis in this part as much for information in a potential capacity as not in actual capacity.

In 2017, China first tested the new helicopters, which can reach a speed of 400 km/h, with a crew of 7 people and a radius of 997,7 km. The "Z-19A" helicopter, which is supposed to rival the "Apache" helicopters, is also part of this arsenal, which is under development and which has a serious capacity for hunting tanks from a distance. Also worth mentioning are the new "Tengoen TB-001" drones, which have a payload of 3 tons and a radius of 3.000 km and the ability to remain autonomous for up to 37 hours. In terms of airlift, China has the Mi 46 – a joint product with Russia, which rivals the capacity of the Navy's Royal CH53, which was considered the king of the class. Although the USA has the dominance, in this part too, China remains an imminent growing giant, which, unlike before, is causing serious headaches for the dominance of the USA.

(The author is a university professor, associate professor at Arizona State University, USA)