Generals in Kiev claim the sudden ground breakthrough deep into Russian territory is going "as planned," but Moscow and its Ukrainian allies are only guessing as to the purpose of the shock counteroffensive.

Kiev announced last night that only on Tuesday the Ukrainian forces penetrated 1 to 3 kilometers deeper and that they already have under control 74 settlements and a territory of about 1.000 square kilometers. Ukrainian forces faced virtually no resistance as they broke through two defensive lines and several military posts.

– The element of surprise had an effect. We entered easily, with little resistance. On August 6, the first groups broke through the night and advanced in several directions. Almost immediately they reached the western suburbs of Suja - a Ukrainian soldier still in Russia said on the Telegram platform.

Information from the field is contradictory, but it is believed that Ukrainian troops are already 30 kilometers deep in Russian territory, in the direction of Kursk. After this region, a state of emergency has also been declared in the Belgorod border region, which has been the target of Ukrainian attacks before, mainly with drones.

- The situation in the Belgorod area continues to be extremely difficult and tense. The armed forces of Ukraine shell every day, houses are destroyed, civilians are injured and killed - said Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, who announced that he will ask Moscow to introduce a state of emergency at the federal level.

Russian General Apti Alaudinov said Ukrainian troops had been halted, and the Defense Ministry said attacks in villages between 26 and 28 kilometers from the border had been repelled.

Putin's "dilemma".

US President Joe Biden assessed that "Ukraine's military incursion into Russia has created a real dilemma" for Russian President Vladimir Putin, but he did not explain exactly what dilemma he was referring to. Sources in Washington clarify that the aim of the attack is probably to force Russia to redeploy part of the troops that were prepared for offensive actions into a defensive position, precisely in the Sumy region, on the Ukrainian side of the border in the section towards Kursk. But these are just guesses. Biden said that Washington is in "constant contact" with Kiev regarding the operation, but also that the US was not involved in the planning and preparation in any way.

Contrary to estimates that the action has only a temporary and limited character, Ukrainian forces are penetrating deeper and are already building defensive strongholds around the cities from which they expelled the Russian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the offensive was "defensive" to neutralize a zone from which more than 2.000 attacks on Ukraine had been launched in the past three months. One of the objectives is to capture as many enemy soldiers as possible for exchange.

– In the face of difficulties and intense battles, our forces continue to advance in the Kursk region and the state "exchange fund" is increasing. 74 settlements are under Ukrainian control - said Zelenski.

He said that he asked the commander-in-chief of the military forces Oleksandr Sirski "to develop the next key steps" of the operation.

- Everything is going according to plan - answered General Sirski, without explaining.

Heorhiy Tikhi, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that "Ukraine is not interested in occupying territory, but in protecting the lives of its people."

- The operation helps the front, because it does not allow Russia to transfer additional units to the occupied Donetsk region and complicates its military logistics - Tihi said.

The deep breach, at the same time, creates logistical problems for the Ukrainian spearhead, which includes about 10.000 troops from four brigades, with tanks and combat vehicles, as well as support from drones and electronic jamming systems. And their engagement and reinforcement represents a fragmentation of the Ukrainian defense lines on the front, on which Russian forces have been advancing for months. The breakthrough to the Ukrainian logistics hub in Pokrovsk is particularly critical.

Answer to Moscow

Analysts indicate that the development of the situation will depend on the response of the Russian forces. President Vladimir Putin said Russia would send a "strong response". Soldiers and weapons are already being transferred to Kursk. The Lebanese Minister of Defense Laurinas Kasciunas said that the Russians are sending reinforcements to Kursk even from the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad.

Analyst Pasi Paroinen from the Blackbird group estimated that Russia has large enough military reserves to stop the breakthrough, but that so far it has mainly relied on the units that are in the region.

- The Russians should have enough reserves so that they are not forced to weaken the central group of units that is now pressing the Ukrainian defense lines near Toretsk and Pokrovsk - said Paroinen.

The morale of the Ukrainians, after the series of territorial losses at the front, is more a consequence than a goal of the breakthrough.

If, on the other hand, the purpose of the action was to take a more favorable position if peace negotiations are organized soon, for example in the case of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential elections in the United States in November, Moscow replied yesterday that the breakthrough to Kursk "can only cause a long pause' in peace efforts. Rodion Miroshnik, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, called the offensive a "terrorist action."

The Russian ambassador to the United Nations criticized the Western powers for not condemning the Ukrainian invasion of Russian territory, as they condemned the Russian one two years ago.

A very, very bold maneuver

The Ukrainian breakthrough into Russia is "a very, very bold maneuver that has paid off so far," said Sir Alex Younger, former head of Britain's MI6 intelligence service.

- President Volodymyr Zelensky's strategy is that he should "reset" the policy of the war in his favor and impose a price and uncertainty on Russia - Younger told the BBC.

He estimated that the operation would be successful only if Zelensky has a plan for logistical support and for the withdrawal of troops.