Uncertainty over who will form a government in Bulgaria and the option of holding new parliamentary elections there in the autumn narrows Macedonia's chances of a European integration breakthrough not only at the June summit but also by the end of this year, analysts warn. The showman Slavi Trifonov has the best chance to form a government, whose movement "There are such people" won 51 seats without a pre-election program, after Boyko Borisov's GERB which won 75 MPs, but has no one to form a coalition with.

Ljupcho Neshkov, owner of the Bulgarian news agency BGNES, in a media appearance yesterday asked why in Macedonia they think that the relations between Skopje and Sofia depend on some elections.

- First they depended on the elections in Macedonia, then the work of the Commission was stopped and in general all talks were interrupted. We are now waiting for these elections in Bulgaria in conditions when there may be no government. Why should Macedonia wait for new parliamentary or presidential elections in Bulgaria - Neshkov asked.

He believes that "two golden years have been lost, for which we could have solved many issues and opened a great perspective".

- However, it happens when you deal with dishonest patriots. In Sofia, no one is interested in the language and identity of the Macedonians. Bulgaria wants to fulfill the 2017 Agreement. In Skopje, all those patriots will mourn a lot for Borisov, Zaharieva and Karakachanov - says Neshkov.

According to political scientist Blagojce Atanasoski, it is difficult to guess who will make the necessary majority of 121 deputies to form the future Bulgarian government into an ideologically and party-coalition colorful parliament.

- It is most unlikely that it will be Borisov's GERB, despite the fact that it is a nominally winning party, because everyone else has publicly refused to cooperate with him. He himself is aware of this and therefore called on them to take immediate responsibility and form a government. The leader of the Socialists (BSP) Cornelia Ninova called on Slavi Trifonov to form an anti-GERB government, but he refused to cooperate with the successors of the communists and for the time being "wisely" remained silent. There is also a variant for a minority government between Trifonov's "There is such a people", Hristo Ivanov's "Democratic Bulgaria" and Maja Manolova's "Stand Up.bg" with the support of the ethnic Turkish party, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms DPS, for which declared the leader of this party Mustafa Karadaj, but strictly without the participation of GERB or BSP, as a supported minority government without the participation of the DPS itself! However, the equation is very complex, with many unknowns and I do not rule out that new early parliamentary elections will be held soon in the fall together with the presidential ones, and until then there will be an official cabinet appointed by President Rumen Radev - Atanasoski predicts for "Free Press".

According to analyst Petar Arsovski, it is better for Macedonia to form a government than to go to new parliamentary elections, a political government with as many coalition partners as possible. The expert government, he says, should organize elections in the fall and there will be an excuse not to deal with the Sofia-Skopje relations at all, and in such a variant this year will be completely lost for Macedonia's European integration.

- It is best for us to form a political government with more participants because that way it will be easier to share the responsibility for the decisions that will be made - says Arsovski.

Regarding whether the new parliamentary composition in Bulgaria will be limited by the declaration denying the Macedonian identity and history that was unanimously adopted by the previous parliament in 2018, Arsovski said that it is good that there are new parties in this composition that have nothing to do with that declaration, "and it is neither a Constitution nor a law."

- At this moment it is really difficult to predict who could form a government and many options are open. Incumbent Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, although less likely, should not be fired because he is a skilled politician. His latest offer with 10 MPs to support Trifonov to form a government, shows that Borisov is still in play - says Arsovski.

Atanasoski is not optimistic that Bulgaria will soon lift the veto on Macedonia to the EU and expects that the new parties will calculate so as not to lose votes.

- It can not be magically solved immediately, because even if there is a will for such a thing, those parties will be very careful when removing the veto, because it can bring them negative points before the possible new elections, because the "Macedonian question" there it is raised on a pedestal and through it votes are drawn or lost! However, the damage is great and already done in December with the very act of vetoing and the negative role played by Karakachanov, Zaharieva, Dzambazki and Kovachev! Now remains the more difficult task of their successors to get the "hot chestnuts" out of the tangled Macedonian-Bulgarian relations! We should be extremely careful and cautious and both sides should invest sincere will and effort to solve the absurdly created problems - says Atanasoski.

A few days ago, the Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said that he expects the new government of Bulgaria to be formed in April and thus the talks to continue to find a solution that will be acceptable to both parties and reiterated that the Macedonian identity and the Macedonian language can not be a topic of conversation and negotiation.

According to the final results, out of 240 seats in the Bulgarian Parliament, GERB won 75, "There is such a people" 51, the Bulgarian Socialist Party 43, DPS 30, Democratic Bulgaria 27, and "Stand up! The Mafia out! ”14 MPs. Prime Minister Borisov resigned from the parliament, and Trifonov announced that he had symptoms of covid-19 and withdrew in isolation.

Konstantinov: Trifonov will form a government, and everyone will support him

Bulgaria will have a stable government, formed by the second-placed party "There is such a people", and supported by all parliamentary forces, predicted yesterday Professor Mikhail Konstantinov, head of the state agency "Information Services", which deals with the counting of votes in the elections. According to him, such a government could have serious support, similar to before 1989, when the BKP was the only party in Bulgaria.

Asked whether early elections would be held in Bulgaria over the summer, he said it would be "crazy and irresponsible", adding that Bulgaria needed a stable leadership. He predicts a possible war in Ukraine, which will not be small, for which Bulgaria, as a NATO member, must be prepared.