Will Europe join Biden's plan against China?
The EU has become much more skeptical of Beijing, but some European leaders are worried about Washington's new Cold War rhetoric reminiscent of the Cold War.
Ever since he entered the White House in January, Joe Biden has set one foreign policy goal above others - to work with allies to curb China.
After the drama and excitement of the Trump era, when the United States was tough on China but also with its closest partners, Biden is trying to unite Washington's global coalition, with a major focus on Beijing. He announced the project in February at a security conference in Munich, when he said the United States, Europe and Asia must "resist the economic abuses and pressures of the Chinese government."
Biden's plan has had some success in Asia, where it has found common ground with countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia.
But as the president prepares for his first overseas trip abroad, he faces the most delicate task ever - trying to win over cautious Europe to work more closely with Washington on China. Following Friday's G7 meeting in Cornwall, UK, Biden is heading to Brussels for next week's NATO and EU-US summits. He will then fly to Geneva to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Different interests
After the predictable statements of unity, Biden will have to deal with an unpleasant reality at these meetings, diplomats and officials warn. Although the EU has strained relations with China, it has different economic and strategic priorities from the United States, which is a constant risk that divisions will become open.
"The EU is concerned and is trying to avoid the public and useless squabbles practiced by the Trump and Pompeo administrations," said a senior EU diplomat. "But the reality is that we are not 100 percent unique, and the Chinese know that."
Negotiators ahead of EU-US summit say Biden hopes to form like-minded coalitions to rebuke China over stifling pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, repression of Uighurs, aggressive military activity across South and East China seas and the use of economic coercion to retaliate against its critics. The G7 is discussing ways to boost infrastructure projects in middle- and low-income countries to try to counter Chinese initiatives. At the same time, the EU and the US want to find ways to work together on issues such as the sale of China's sensitive technology. There is awareness in European capitals of the need to show unity after the bitter feuds of Trump's years, trying to send a clear message to China that it is now harder to divide.
But Biden will have to be careful not to alienate allies - especially German Chancellor Angela Merkel - who are wary of Cold War-style rhetoric against China. A European official says some EU countries do not like the term "adversary", which is often used in Washington to refer to Beijing.
Noah Barkin of the Rhodium Group research group says that although the United States and the EU share many concerns about China, they have differing views on how to respond. "Europe has its own interests," he said. "There will be no smooth [US-European] cooperation for China."
System rival
Over the past two years, Europe has undergone a gradual but substantial reassessment of relations with China as European leaders opposed President Xi Jinping's more authoritarian approach, further exacerbated by the so-called aggressive diplomatic tactics. Beijing's "warlike wolf". Several European countries, including Britain, France and Germany, have decided to send warships to the South China Sea to bolster the US message to China on free sea navigation. Well, while the United States does not expect the Europeans to help in the event of a conflict over Taiwan - unlike allies with mutual defense agreements such as Japan - the symbolism shows China that the United States is not alone.
The EU's growing stance on China was underscored by the European Parliament's recent decision to put on ratification the ratification of the Union's proposed investment agreement with Beijing. It came after Beijing imposed retaliatory sanctions on EU politicians and institutions in response to coordinated sanctions imposed by the European bloc, the United States, Britain and Canada on Chinese authorities over the treatment of Uighurs in the northwestern province of Xinjiang.
The weakening of the so-called The "Group 17 + 1" of Central and Eastern European countries and China is another example of the growing gap between the EU and Beijing. The group, including 12 EU countries, was once seen as a way for smaller members to receive investments and meet with China's top officials. Lithuania has recently publicly rejected the initiative, and other EU countries are distancing themselves from it.
The evolution of Europe's relationship with China was presented in a 2019 document, which described Beijing as a partner and economic competitor in some areas, but where China was first called a "systemic rival". The German corporate lobby came up with an unexpectedly tough stance the same year, calling for a tougher European approach to unfair Chinese business practices.
At the same time, Brussels has new tools to defend European interests from expected threats abroad, especially from China. Among the most prominent is a legislative initiative that allows the Commission to take action against state-owned enterprises outside the EU, as well as plans to force companies to end abuses in their supply chains.
During a recent visit to Brussels, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said there were "significant changes" in Europe's relationship with China. "We have made a lot of progress with Europe in relation to China," said a senior State Department official. "Coordinated sanctions on Xinjiang are very important. "If you had asked me six months ago if I thought Brussels, Ottawa, London and Washington would all come together with human rights sanctions against China, I would not have bet on that."
Technological front
But the question Biden faces is how to translate that mood swing into tangible collaboration. In one of the easier challenges, both sides are eager to improve coordination for the selection of top officials for key international bodies to prevent China from gaining more power.
At the EU-US summit, the intention is to launch a Trade and Technology Council to strengthen coordination on 5G, semiconductors, supply chains, export controls and technology rules and standards. This will be a significant change from the Trump era, when Brussels was repeatedly misrepresented by US presidential initiatives aimed at China.
However, while technology is considered one of the most important areas of opposition to China, Martin Rasser, a former CIA expert now at the new US Security Center, warns against expecting quick results, given the complexity of global chains. supply.
"The semiconductor industry is highly globalized and supply chains are very complex. "It is something that only the United States and the EU can not solve." "You have to engage with Japan and South Korea, and Taiwan is a key player in that."
An EU official warns that there are still significant transatlantic differences in technology. Tensions around semiconductors are an illustration of the complexity of the problem. For example, the Dutch company ASML (ASML) dominates the market for the advanced devices needed by Chinese companies to produce high-end chips, necessary for smartphones.
But the 2019 ASML cannot obtain permission from the Dutch government to export its ultraviolet lithography equipment to China International Semiconductor Corporation (SMIC), China's largest chipmaker. Biden last week banned Americans from investing in 59 Chinese companies that work with SMIC.
Sigrid Kaag, the Dutch trade minister, said last month that the ASML case was under "ongoing" review. "Obviously this is a good production line, but we want to remain an open trading nation, so we are in ongoing dialogue with our allies about this, because this is a very specific and sensitive case," she said.
Kaag added that the EU should "join" with the United States to resolve many points of the China agreement, but that this would require the European bloc to "align" and better coordinate between its various institutions to avoid conflicting policy outcomes. to China.
No binary options in Berlin
In Germany, which sees China as its largest trading partner, business sentiment has sharpened in recent years. Small and medium-sized companies face a struggle to defend their intellectual property from industrial espionage, watching as Chinese competitors "swallow" European rivals.
While the United States has sometimes criticized Germany's stance on China, suggesting it does not want to jeopardize its exports, German diplomats have publicly criticized China for its treatment of Uighurs. But Merkel opposed attempts by Germany to confront her to the end. When addressing the Munich Security Conference this year, there were obvious differences between her and Biden on China.
Merkel was also the main driver behind the EU's decision to accept China's adjustments late last year to China's previously stalled investment deal, a month before Biden's inauguration.
With the German election in September, Merkel is at the end of her career. German politicians, including Reinhard Butikofer, a Green MP who is one of those sanctioned by China, see a "shift on the ground" under Merkel's feet as Germany's stance on Beijing changes.
However, the chancellor is not alone in opposing any attempts at economic separation between China and the EU. Julius Winkler, a Romanian MEP who is a member of the center-right EPP group to which Merkel's CDU belongs, opposes any "binary choice" between the United States and China.
Therefore, diplomats say the United States would be wise not to try its luck when dealing with the EU.
Internal divisions
At his meetings with allies in Europe, Biden hopes to repeat similar recipes he used when he persuaded his first White House guests - Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korean President Moon Jae-in - to publicly support Taiwan.
"If you look at Biden's approach to Suga and Moon, the United States is coming to these summits with questions about Taiwan and China," said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund.
But while the US president has put a lot of pressure on Tokyo and Seoul over the issue, he is expected to use softer tactics in Europe due to the more complicated dynamics of dealing with the EU, which is internally divided around China.
"The United States will try to confirm China's views on the G7 as much as possible, but will not sink the ship with pressure to include points such as the leak of the virus from a laboratory in Wuhan," said an official familiar with the plans.
Biden is likely to have little resistance to the G7 after the group's foreign ministers recently issued a joint statement with unexpectedly wide-ranging criticism of China. But even on that forum, priorities differ. While Britain, France and Germany have criticized Beijing for its human rights record, Japan has become more concerned about China's military activity in the South and East China Seas and, for example, has not imposed sanctions on China over its situation in Xinjiang.
How the US views the EU
At the US-EU summit, both sides will struggle to avoid the perception of continuing divisions in light of ongoing difficulties in areas such as the Boeing-Airbus subsidy dispute that preceded Trump. As the administration focuses on its strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, some experts argue that Biden needs to strengthen US-EU relations.
"The Biden administration has a pretty good idea of what it wants from Europe, and that is a common policy for China," said Tom Wright, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution. "It is less clear what type of Europe they want. "Finally, if Biden wants Europe to compete with China, he will have to change the way the United States thinks about the EU, in terms of strategic autonomy, burden-sharing and trade."
While thrilled by the benefits of deeper co-operation, EU officials and diplomats complain that so far they have seen only a relatively thin range of US proposals for specific summit results. They also point to Washington's persistent tendency to announce initiatives without prior consultation with the EU. One example is Biden's unexpected decision to push for intellectual property rights over covid-19 vaccines.
While Europeans have hailed the warming with the United States since Biden's election, some have murmured about what could happen in four years, especially if Trump threatens to run for the White House again. A European official said that the European mood towards Biden was similar to that after the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States, after US-EU relations deteriorated significantly under George W. Bush, but "this time with a hangover." "
The article was published in the weekend edition of Free Press. (12-13 June 2021) in the article SP. weekly. The text is taken from Financial Times (LONDON) with prior permission from the publisher.