(INFOGRAPHIC) What did the agencies predict? Most polls show a change in public opinion

Local elections 2021 / Photo: Free Press, Dragan Mitreski

Of the seven relevant polls published before the elections, at least four suggested that VMRO-DPMNE would achieve a significantly better result in this election than SDSM. The polls of the agencies IPSOS, MCIC, IPIS and NDI, published from April to October this year, indicated a convincing victory of VMRO-DPMNE in these local elections, in contrast to the polls of IRI, Stratum and Brima, whose public opinion polls can not to draw such a conclusion.

The MCIC poll from April this year shows that 22,4 percent of the citizens said they would vote for VMRO-DPMNE, and 21,6 percent for SDSM. The next biggest support is for DUI (8%), 6,2% will vote for the Alliance for Albanians, and 5,2% for the Left. In terms of ethnicity of the respondents, 31,5 percent of ethnic Macedonians said they would vote for VMRO-DPMNE, 26,9 percent for SDSM and 7,3 percent for the Left.

MCIC Survey from April 2021, Prepared by: Elisaveta Bejkova

In an IPSOS poll conducted this month for the needs of VMRO-DPMNE, the results showed that 22 percent voted for VMRO-DPMNE, 16 percent for SDSM, 7 percent for DUI, 6 percent for the Left, and 5 percent for the Alliance of Albanians. .

In the IPIS poll conducted in March this year, by phone, on a representative sample of 1.109 adult citizens, VMRO-DPMNE led SDSM. 23,1 percent of the respondents voted for VMRO-DPMNE, and 21,2 percent for SDSM, which means that the opposition had a 1,9 percent advantage over the ruling party.

The National Democratic Institute (NDI) conducted a poll in March and April this year. And according to that poll, VMRO-DPMNE led SDSM. To the question "If parties go to the polls and not coalitions, which party would you vote for?", 14% voted for VMRO-DPMNE, 10% for SDSM, 5% for DUI and the Left, 4% for the Alliance / Alternative. It is interesting that as many as 50 percent of the citizens who participated in the poll did not trust any of the politicians.

NDI Survey from March and April 2021, Prepared by: Elisaveta Bejkova

The Brima Agency, which conducted a poll at the end of August and the beginning of September, received results according to which 19,8 percent of the respondents would vote for a candidate of SDSM, 17,7 percent for a candidate of VRMO-DPMNE, 7,5 percent for DUI. 5,6 percent for the Alliance of Albanians, 4,6 percent for the BESA Movement, 3,3 percent for the Left. Interestingly, in this poll, 2,4 percent of respondents said they would vote for an independent candidate, and 8,8 percent said they would not vote.

Brima Survey August-September 2021, Prepared by: Elisaveta Bejkova

The Stratum poll, conducted in early October, found that 24,9 per cent of citizens would vote for SDSM councilor lists in the local elections, and 22,8 per cent for VMRO-DPMNE lists. 10% voted for DUI, 9,3% for the Alliance of Albanians. To the question "In your opinion, which political party offers the best offer in these elections?", 27,1 percent voted for SDSM, 24,7 percent for VMRO-DPMNE, 13,4 percent for an independent list, 11 percent for DUI, 10 percent for the Alliance of Albanians 6,5 percent, for the Left XNUMX percent.

Stratum Survey in October 2021, Prepared by: Elisaveta Bejkova

According to an IRI poll published in June this year, SDSM would win 19 per cent of the vote, while VMRO-DPMNE had the support of 16 per cent of voters. The third party, according to the rating, was DUI, which would be decided by 8%, followed by the Alliance for Albanians and the Left with the support of 4% of voters. In this poll, published a few weeks before the vote, as many as 21 percent said they did not know who they would vote for, and 9 percent said they would not vote at all.

IRI Survey from June 2021, Prepared by: Elisaveta Bejkova

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