Geopolitics around the elections in Moldova - a clash between Russia and the EU?

Data processing: Ivan Samardziev

Will this country, pressed by the crisis in Transnistria and the war in neighboring Ukraine, be led by the former pro-Western president Maja Sandu or the opponent Aleksandar Stojanoglo?

The residents of Moldova will decide in elections today who will represent them to the world as head of state in the next term.

As candidates, the citizens of Moldova were offered: the current president, Maia Sandu, educated, among other things, in the USA, where she worked as an advisor to the World Bank in Washington and behind the center-right Action and Solidarity Party (PAS). which secured in the first round the benefit of 42 percent of voters and former chief prosecutor Alexander Stojanoglo, leader of the pro-Russian Socialist Party, who was trusted by 26 percent of his compatriots.

The President of Moldova Maja Sandu / 18 May 2022 / Photo: EPA-EFE / OLIVIER HOSLET

While the first round of voting, held on October 20, was overshadowed by the simultaneous referendum declaration on the country's pro-European future, this time the candidates who declare themselves differently on many issues face each other directly.

Therefore, many see the upcoming vote as the end of the direction the country will move in the future.

However, the first round of the elections did not clarify the direction of pro-Western or pro-Eastern, because as the last referendum on rapprochement with the EU showed, a low turnout and a negligible victory of the current government was registered.

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Moldova with about 2,6 million inhabitants is one of the poorest countries on the Old Continent, with a GDP of barely 15 billion dollars and an average monthly salary between 500 and 600 euros. This is the main reason that forces the inhabitants of the former socialist country to go abroad, primarily to Romania and beyond.

However, the main dilemma of the upcoming elections will be the very survival of the state. Namely, there should be no doubt that if Maya Sandu and her politics win, Moldova would be one step closer to disintegration. The northeastern province of Transnistria, which has already declared some independence and where Russia still maintains a significant contingent of its troops, and Gaugasia in the south, with its established constitutional right to secede, will certainly not agree to be commanded by a pro-Western president.

In such a situation, even the smallest spark will be enough to ignite a larger-scale conflict.

"I know that you are dissatisfied with the current government, with the fact that we have not managed to clean up and strengthen the judicial system." I understand your disappointment. But let's unite and not allow the return of a regime that uses dirty methods," said presidential candidate Maya Sandu.

Moldova presidential elections Moldova EPA-EFE/DUMITRU DORU

On the other hand, Alexander Stojanoglo rejects ties with Russia, and calls for European integration and an end to the divisions that, according to him, President Sandu has caused.

He is convinced that his election as the new head of state will enable solving the problem of Transnistria and creating conditions for the reunification of the country.

What most observers agree on is that the referendum on rapprochement with Europe had the primary aim of mobilizing as many people as possible to the polls.

Neither the local media nor the world media generally provide data on how many citizens were ready to put their ballots in the referendum boxes. Only the final result is reported which is so narrow that it objectively does not show anything concrete.

Moldova is a small country and is located in too sensitive a place to be able to resist influences from both the East and the West.

The flags of Moldova and Russia
Photo: Ink Drop / Alamy / Alamy / Profimedia

The local citizens are also aware of this and therefore try to measure which option is more favorable for them.

The war in neighboring Ukraine brought those attempts to the point of open conflict, which in a republic with a national structure where Moldovans, Russians and Romanians are practically equal in number, could cause a catastrophic development.

The upcoming presidential elections will not bring any big changes in this sense.

Residents of the poorest country on the continent will continue to try to find happiness somewhere outside the borders of their homeland, according to those who know the situation well.

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