Gas crisis and Putin: He is a street fighter, and the West skates in Russia while Putin plays hockey

Putin plays hockey / Photo: EPA-EFE / ALEXEI DRUZHININ / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN / POOL MANDATORY CREDIT

CNN analyzes that Russia over the past decade under Vladimir Putin has been a constant concern for the West and this is not unfounded.

It is undeniable that Putin and the president's inner circle made a series of provocative moves during this period, sometimes to annex parts of other countries, sometimes to support dictators in foreign wars or to poison dissidents. It seems that Putin's Kremlin is no longer seeking validation from the West, which has largely passively monitored Russia's militancy, writes CNN.

But the situation has escalated in the last week. As gas prices rise across Europe over declining Russian gas supplies, Putin is cutting off already loose diplomatic ties with NATO countries, and CNN is investigating how much Western policymakers have misread Putin and ignored his willingness to use weapons. which is available to him.

The energy crisis across Europe reveals a very powerful tool that gives Russia power in its relations with Europe, and that is its gas reserves. It is no secret that many European countries, including Germany, rely on Russian natural gas supplies. Recent shortages have shown not only the economic but also the geopolitical risks of this dependence.

Russia is meeting its existing supply obligations to European countries, but analysts say it could boost exports to supply the European market before the cold winter begins.

The question from a Russian perspective is why would she do that? Moscow is still awaiting approval from German regulations for Nord Stream 2, the controversial pipeline that will connect Russia with Germany and deliver large quantities of gas to Western Europe.

"If the German regulator submits its approval for deliveries tomorrow, deliveries of 17,5 billion cubic meters will start the day after tomorrow," Putin told a forum on Thursday, blaming the recent gas crisis and high prices on EU energy policy.

The pipeline is controversial because many see it as a project of Moscow's geopolitical influence, and that fear was not allayed when Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month that "early certification" for Nord Stream 2 would help "calm the situation".

In addition to the financial and geopolitical advantages that Russia has gained because Europe relies on its own gas, it also reinforces the domestic political narrative that has developed over time in Russia - the West has repeatedly misunderstood things.

- The essence of this narrative is that Europe and the West should reconsider their malicious policy, whether it is energy or foreign intervention. Ten years ago, this argument was more defensive because the Kremlin wanted to protect itself from criticism from Western governments. But now Russia can claim that Western policy has failed so much in Libya, Syria and Afghanistan that Russia's approach is actually correct all the time, says Oleg Ignjatov, an analyst at the Crisis Group in Russia.

When you look at this, looking at Putin's behavior over the past decade, it can be seen that it has been easy for him to build the image of a leader who is trying to restore the pride of his country and is too happy to take advantage of the opportunities it offers. naive western counterparts.

- Since the end of the Cold War, many of Putin's generation have believed that they are still at war with the West. This has become even more acute since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and so you can now see that Russia is freer to deploy troops on its international borders, spread disinformation and chase away political dissidents. As for them, it is allowed in war - says Mark Galotti, honorary professor at University College London, currently based in Moscow.

Some argue that Putin's relatively limited threat has led to almost passive behavior in the West. This in turn meant that the Russian president could make hostile moves with very few consequences.

The logic goes like this. Russian agents poisoning a former Russian spy on British soil are certainly a problem. In reality, however, this poses a small threat to Britain, and tougher sanctions by sanctioning individuals close to Putin could do more harm than good.

This potentially benefits Putin because it allows him to present himself as proof that he is an untouchable, powerful man holding the West in his hand.

- The biggest long-term problem is that the West has treated every hostile act of Russia as an isolated incident, instead of looking at the general scheme of Russia, which has no desire or interest to play by the rules. Russia is becoming more direct. When Russia uses the European gas crisis to push through its Nord Stream project or sever all remaining ties with NATO, it does so openly and will no longer pretend that Moscow is working to build good relations with the West. This is the same pattern we see in Russia. "The escalating repression is now apparent and accelerating, as the Kremlin no longer cares," Chatham House associate Kirill told CNN.

The consequences for the West are not encouraging for those who oppose Putin, at home or abroad, CNN concludes.

"Whenever he gets a chance, he will use it. It happened in Ukraine, it happened in Georgia. He understands only strong messages and if we continue to show disunity, he will respond in the same way. He is a street fighter. The West is trying to play figure skating in Russia, but Putin is playing ice hockey, said Riho Terras, a former commander of the Estonian Defense Forces.

Source: CNN

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