I can understand that a country is neutral, but it is important on whose side it is neutral, this statement is attributed to Winston Churchill.

After decades of neutrality, Finland and possibly Sweden are on track to abandon the traditional Nordic peace policy in one of the most dramatic geopolitical upheavals and draw new contours of European security with the announcement of NATO membership.

The expected abandonment of neutrality, which was based on the belief that peace is more protected without openly taking sides, is a direct consequence of the fear of the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Last year, a poll showed that only 26 percent of Finns want to join NATO. That percentage has now jumped to 68. It is similar in Sweden, where the majority of citizens are in favor - which was never the case before the Russian invasion.

"Russia is not the neighbor we imagined," said Finnish Prime Minister Sana Marin, so it is almost certain that her country will apply for membership. The final decision will be made these days. President Sauli Niinisto is expected to give his consent first, and then the decision of the parliament that will not vote, but the leaders of the party groups will announce the views of their parties.

Finland was the target of the Stalinist regime in 1939-40 when the Soviet Union invaded it, and after its collapse it openly joined the West, although, like Sweden, it pursued a policy of military neutrality. Finland shares a 1.300-kilometer border with Russia, and Russia's second-largest city, St. Petersburg, is only 170 kilometers from the border. Moscow considers the Kola Peninsula a strategic bastion of its national security, and there is command of the Russian Northern Fleet.

Earlier, Finnish Foreign Minister Peka Haavisto expressed hope that a similar decision would be made by Sweden at the same time. The two countries are members of the European Union and already have a strong partnership with NATO, participating in joint exercises and even in strategic and operational planning. "There are votes for and against NATO membership, as there are for and against other security elections," said Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson, calling for an accelerated parliamentary debate on the country's most significant security upheaval in two centuries. The result should be announced now, but although Sweden is a little more cautious, it already has a majority that supports NATO membership so that the country does not remain the only one in Scandinavia outside the structures of the Western military alliance.

The ruling Social Democrats, the largest party in all elections in the last century, are expected to drop their long-term opposition to NATO membership following an intra-party debate. The final decision should be known by May 24th so that the application can be submitted to the June NATO summit in Madrid.

Ratification of the agreement could take a year, but both Finland and Sweden would like to receive some assurance that NATO will defend them in the transition period as they expect increased pressure from Russia. attack on all. "There is no going back to the past of illusionist neutrality," said former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt.

NATO is officially discreet and reiterates that the Alliance pursues an open door policy, with Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg saying "there are no other countries closer to NATO" and promising a "quick" accession process with a message that he is confident arrangements will be made for the transition period. The United States has publicly supported the idea of ​​membership that would strengthen the security of northern Europe and allow Americans to focus more on China and the Indo-Pacific region. Julian Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, said the United States would welcome the two countries. "We went to exercises together, we trained together. "They are among our closest allies in Europe, so I can not imagine a situation of great resistance to this idea."

Paradoxically, the only threat to the Nordic path to NATO could be Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, who sees the decision as "dangerous quackery" and announces he will veto it unless a new election law is passed - in Bosnia and Herzegovina. . "As for me, let them join NATO, let them stab a angry bear in the eye. "Until the issue of the election law is resolved, until Bakir Izetbegovic is forced to change the election law, the Assembly must not ratify anyone's accession to NATO," the Croatian head of state said.

Since the first mention of membership, Moscow has warned Finland and Sweden of "serious political and military consequences", saying it would strengthen its land, naval and air forces in the Baltic and leave open the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in the Kaliningrad region. .

Stockholm and Helsinki are certainly aware of the fact that Ukraine's desire to join NATO was one of the reasons for Putin's war. When announcing the start of a "special military operation" in Ukraine, Putin even mentioned NATO 40 times, often in the context of accusations of eastward expansion and the West's intention to "destroy" Russia and destabilize Europe.

"The only person destabilizing Europe is Mr Putin," former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen wrote in the New York Times. "Russia targeted Ukraine, before Georgia, just because they are not NATO members."

If Putin's invasion succeeds in anything, it is that two militarily neutral countries are moving towards NATO because of the growing threat to their own security. The expected expansion of the Western military alliance from 30 to 32 members would be a serious geostrategic blow for Vladimir Putin, who once said that NATO is a relic of the past and should remain in history.

If he hoped that the invasion of Ukraine would bring discord between NATO allies and the European Union, his aggression proved to be diametrically opposed to his ambitions: Moscow not only faces a unity of Atlantic allies that is unheard of since World War II. but the border with NATO has doubled.