The European summit in the shadow of Trump's election victory
The outcome of the US election was the main topic of the European Political Community summit held in Budapest on Thursday. The crisis of the German government was in the background.
After confirming that Donald Trump will return to the White House, European leaders did not say a single bad word about him. The vast majority of the 47 heads of state and government who gathered in Budapest at the summit of the European Political Community (EPC), an organization that, in addition to the countries of the European Union, Turkey, Ukraine, Iceland, Norway and Great Britain, as well as the countries from the Western Balkans, counts on the continuation of the partnership with the USA. Knowing that the winner of the election in Washington is subject to personal courtship, many European politicians praised the "magnificent" campaign, the "historic" success and the "great comeback" of the president.
Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom Donald Trump wants to cut defense aid against Russia, praised what he said was a "very good" phone call with Trump, who is critical of the EU.
"I acknowledged his family and his team for their excellent work," said Volodymyr Zelensky.
He looks forward to "an era of a strong United States under the energetic leadership of President Trump."
Such a choice of words should please Donald Trump, who claimed during the election campaign that he could end Russia's war against Ukraine in 24 hours even before the inauguration. In an emotional speech in Budapest, President Zelensky also warned that concessions to Russia would be "suicide for Europe".
Joyfully rushing to Trump?
The new NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, said at the EPZ summit held in Budapest's football stadium that he was even looking forward to working with the Trump administration "to achieve peace through strength". That worked so well during his first four years in office, Rutte said. Really? Trump's campaign threats that he would not defend NATO countries that do not increase their military budgets in accordance with the NATO treaty have apparently been forgotten. French President Emmanuel Macron argued at the summit that Europe should not leave its defense in the hands of the Americans forever.
"Do we want others to write history, Vladimir Putin's wars, the US election or China's trade policy?" Or do we want to write our own history? I think we have the strength to write it ourselves," Macron said.
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama warned his European colleagues not to react "hysterically" to Trump's election victory, but to look at reality and wait for Trump's concrete policy.
"This could be an opportunity for Europe to change things and start looking at them differently," Rama believes.
Ultimately, higher defense spending in Europe under pressure from Trump will lead to a strengthening of NATO. However, spending aimed at reaching two percent of gross national product has grown faster than expected, especially after the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 – when President Joe Biden was in office.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who is more pro-Russian than pro-Western, sees Trump's election victory as an opportunity.
"I hope that now it will be possible to discuss a ceasefire and peace in Ukraine," Vucic said.
Any deal, he says, is better than the current state of war.
Orban is enjoying the change in Washington
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, also a Kremlin ally, was all smiles as he welcomed his guests in Budapest. He didn't say much, but his big smile still spoke volumes. Orbán is the only head of government of an EU member state who openly campaigned for Trump.
Diplomats of the European Union assess that Orbán now sees himself as a natural mediator between the new administration in Washington and Europe. Orbán was heavily criticized by Brussels for his independent "peace mission" to Moscow and Beijing last summer. The right-wing politician is in constant dispute with the European Commission due to deficits in the rule of law in Hungary. Mostly isolated in Brussels, he is now stuck in Budapest.
Berlin's government crisis casts a shadow over the Budapest meeting
One person did not participate in the talks about Trump and Ukraine: Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In Berlin, he first had to deal with the collapse of the ruling coalition. On Wednesday night, Scholz fired his liberal finance minister and announced new elections, likely in March, which is quite unusual for Germany. After canceling Thursday's visit, Scholz still wants to attend an informal meeting of the EU's 27 states this Friday, also in Budapest.
After Trump's victory in the current difficult economic and security times, the government crisis in Germany comes at a difficult time for Europeans. But all European colleagues of Olaf Scholz emphasized that the change of power is a completely normal democratic process. After all, Austria and Belgium are also currently struggling with difficult coalition negotiations. New elections have been called in Ireland, and in France the prime minister rules with a variable majority.
But one could also hear that "Europe can only be strong with a strong Germany", as the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Mezzola, said in Budapest. NATO Secretary General Rutte, who was in Berlin on Monday for his first visit since heading the Alliance, is optimistic and believes that Germany will fulfill its defense obligations on the international stage despite the government crisis.
The events in Germany do not harm the European Union
The official position of the European Commission is as follows: the change of government in Germany will not hinder the Union. According to the president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the members of the European Union can more easily overcome the challenges themselves.
"When we are together, we have great power. And that is our greatest strength," said the President of the European Commission.
It is said that the Christian Democrat politician is not on the best of terms with German Social Democrat Chancellor Scholz.
However, EU diplomats in Budapest say some things could be more easily resolved without Germany's Social Democrat-Green-Liberal government. The fractious coalition has already caused resentment several times over the sudden change of opinion during the vote in Brussels. Even the offensive phrase "The German Vote" appeared.
Negotiations on the European Union's next budget framework, due to be presented in July 2025, could be even easier as German elections will be held before then, rather than in September 2025 as planned. But this is also speculation, because it is not certain whether the necessary negotiations for the formation of a new coalition will be completed by the summer.
"Strategic Intimacy"
The European political community was founded in 2022 as a forum against Russia, at the initiative of France. Here, the members of the European Union, candidates for accession to the Union and countries that do not want to join the EU should exchange ideas and discuss political strategies. No formal decisions are made at the EPZ summit.
It's more of a format for heads of state and government who don't normally meet that often.
"The EPZ is certainly a rather informal event, even if the leaders meet here. It's a place for strategic intimacy, so to speak, with free time to talk and no directions," says Stephen Blockmans, a Europe expert at the CEPS think tank in Brussels.
The focus is on social exchange and discussions on security issues affecting the Old Continent.
Source: Deutsche Welle/ Author: Bernd Riegert