The two provocative incidents in Stockholm distanced Sweden and Finland from NATO membership, but on the other hand, they increased the political rating of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the parliamentary election campaign.

No one believes that the AKP will not win the most votes in the May elections, but the results of polls indicate that the rating of President Erdogan is lower compared to the potential challengers - the leader of the JHP opposition party Kemal Kilicdaroglu, as well as the popular mayors of Istanbul and Ankara. .

Erdogan reacted immediately and included in his campaign the planned expansion of NATO after pro-Kurdish extremists in Stockholm hung a doll with his image, and soon after a Danish right-winger also burned the holy book Koran, insulting all Muslims, not only Turks. The public burning of the Koran broke no law in Sweden, but Stockholm will suffer political consequences as Ankara has threatened not to allow NATO to expand with the two Scandinavian countries until they hand over all suspected terrorists to Turkey and stop they show hospitality to members of organizations that Ankara considers terrorist.

Feeling threatened by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland last May decided on radical steps – to abandon the centuries-old positions of neutral countries (which contributed to the well-being of their citizens) and join NATO. But they have been in "no man's land" for a whole year now, because if they decide to overcome the opposition from Ankara, they will have to give up another important value they are proud of - respect for human rights and freedoms.

After the harsh provocations, Erdogan canceled the meetings dedicated to Sweden's and Finland's bids for NATO membership, and Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said it was "pointless" to hold a trilateral meeting with representatives from Stockholm and Helsinki.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Christershon expressed optimism that his country will become a member of NATO by the middle of this year despite the dispute with Turkey.

- There are chances, without any doubt - said Kristershon, expressing hope that "it will happen as soon as possible".

Whether his hopes are realized in the expected "middle of this year" timeframe will depend on the outcome of Turkey's parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 14. These elections are considered the most difficult test for the AKP and Erdogan, who has not suffered a political defeat in the past two decades. The dominant position of the ruling party is threatened by the economic crisis that Turkey is going through and which is increasingly affecting the citizens. The incidents in Stockholm gave Erdogan the opportunity to present "Islamophobia in Europe" and "the support of terrorist organizations and enemies of Islam" as the biggest threats to Turkey and with them to cover the problems that citizens face every day.

"Erdogan is trying to use foreign policy issues to gain political advantage," Meral Aksener, leader of the IJI party, the fourth-largest parliamentarian in Ankara, told Reuters.

Ozer Senjar from the "Metropol" polling agency believes that Erdogan will try to direct attention to "European Islamophobia" in order to consolidate his own voter base.

- He creates a perception of himself in Turkey as a strong leader. If you can solve a security problem, people easily line up behind strong leaders - says Senjar.

The authorities in Stockholm and Helsinki are aware that their security is being held hostage by Erdogan's election campaign.

- Of course they are under pressure from the mid-May elections. Because of that, the discussions understandably heated up in many ways in Turkey - said the head of Finnish diplomacy, Pekka Haavisto.

Reuters reports a warning from an anonymous Western diplomat that as a result of Turkey's politics, NATO expansion may be frozen until October, when the new composition of the parliament in Ankara is expected to be formed, after political negotiations and summer vacations.