EXCLUSIVE Brima survey: Who has the best chance in the local elections
The regular political barometer of the "Brima" agency for the political views of the population in the Republic of Northern Macedonia in the run-up to the local elections in the country is a field survey, conducted in the period from August 27 to September 9 this year on a nationally representative sample (the survey was conducted by face-to-face method, at the respondent's home), observing all demographic characteristics of the population aged 18+ in the country, which includes 1.201 respondents. The results have an error margin of +/- 2,8%.
Respondents were also asked about it "Which political party candidate would you vote for as mayor of your municipality in the upcoming local elections?", after which 19,8% would vote for SDSM candidate, 17,7% for VRMO-DPMNE candidate, 7,5% for DUI, 5,6% for the Alliance of Albanians, 4,6% for the BESA Movement, 3,3 , 2,4% for the Left, etc. Interestingly, at this point 8,8% say they will vote for an independent candidate, and 13% say they will not vote. However, about a quarter are in the category of "unexplained", ie 3,7% say they are "indecisive", 7,4% say "I do not know", and XNUMX% explicitly "refuse to answer".
In terms of ethnicity, 52,2% of ethnic Macedonians would "very likely" vote, compared to 24,7% of ethnic Albanians and 45,7% of other nationalities.
Of those who said they would "most likely" vote in the lowest percentage are in the Polog region (20,7%) and the highest in the Southeast region (70%). In other regions these parameters range from about 38% -56%.
If we consider only the respondents who at this moment state that they are "very likely" to vote in the local elections, 33% of them would vote for SDSM candidate, 28,2% for VRMO-DPMNE candidate, 4,5% for DUI , 2,8% for the Alliance of Albanians, 3,3% for the BESA Movement, 3,8% for the Left, etc. Currently, 2% of the respondents say they will vote for an independent candidate and in a smaller percentage for other parties.
Of course, it should be borne in mind that an election campaign is imminent that will undoubtedly affect the voters' determination to go to the polls and cast their vote for a particular option.
When comparing the data on the party ratings and the voting potential of the parties, with the electoral mood for the upcoming local elections, it can be freely concluded (with small variations) that there is a high correlation between the party determination and the determination of who would vote for mayor of their municipality. in the upcoming local elections. However, depending on the specific "offers" of the candidates, a change in the electoral determination of the upcoming local elections is possible.
