A fierce exchange of fire by Hezbollah and the Israeli military is raising fears of a regional war beyond the tense border.

The risks to Lebanon are far greater than in 2006. Lebanon has struggled with years of political and economic crises that have left it in debt, without a stable supply of electricity, an adequate banking system and with deep poverty, he analyzes Associated Press News.

And with Hezbollah's significantly greater military power, there are concerns that a new war would be far more destructive and protracted.

Can Lebanon afford any of that?

Planning for a repeat of the 2006 war – or worse?

Since Hezbollah and Israel began firing rockets and drones a day after the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza began on October 7, the conflict has been largely confined to the border towns. But with the threat of a wider war, Lebanon scrambled to equip hospitals with supplies and prepare public schools to open for people seeking refuge.

An Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a senior Hezbollah commander prompted a series of meetings between aid organizations and the Lebanese government, said Laila Al Amineh, who heads the Beirut office of the international aid organization Mercy Corps. It is one of about 60 organizations that are involved with the government in aid efforts.

The agencies drew up a comprehensive response plan this month, outlining two possible scenarios: a limited escalation that would resemble the 2006 war, with an estimated 250.000 people displaced, and a worst-case scenario of "rampant conflict" that would displace at least 1 million people.

The plan drawn up by the UN, a copy of which he received Associated Press, predicts a monthly cost of $50 million in the event of limited escalation and $100 million if all-out war breaks out.

The Lebanese government said emergency funding would come from creditors and aid organizations. But authorities have struggled to find money to care for the 100.000 currently displaced and about 60.000 people living in conflict areas, which costs about $24 million a month.

Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is leading relief operations, told reporters after an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday that the morning attacks would not change the plan.

"It already presents scenarios for all the possibilities that could happen, among them the escalation of hostilities," Yassin said.

Debt-ridden Lebanon is desperate for aid money

Decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon's banks barely functional, while electricity services are almost entirely in the hands of private owners of diesel generators and fuel suppliers. Public service institutions rely on aid groups and international donors to function on an infinite scale. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort receive food and financial aid to survive.

In 2020, the covid-19 pandemic further hit the economy, and an explosion at the port of Beirut flattened several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanese banks and the ruling elite resisted painful reforms as a condition for an International Monetary Fund bailout, while infrastructure continued to wither and living conditions worsened.

Tourism, which authorities have been relying on to help rebuild the economy, has also been hit after the border conflict with Israel.

And unlike in 2006, Lebanon hosts more than one million Syrian refugees who fled the conflict in their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad told the AP earlier this month that Lebanon's health system is ill-equipped to treat the additional population in the event of an all-out war, as international funding for Syrian refugees continues to decline.

In April, Yassin said the country only had half the money it needed to respond to the conflict and the humanitarian needs that followed.

Lebanon faces tighter logistics

In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon's only airport, putting it largely out of business, and imposed an air and sea blockade. The bombing crippled critical infrastructure and flattened neighborhoods, with damage and losses worth $3,1 billion, according to the World Bank.

But aid groups were eventually able to send supplies through the country's ports and sometimes through the airport using the remaining limited space. In its assessment of the war, the UN said its relief efforts were not a response to a humanitarian crisis. "People didn't die of poor sanitation, starvation or disease. "They died from bombs and shells," the UN said.

Many Lebanese were able to flee to neighboring Syria, where a 2011 uprising plunged the country into civil war. It is unclear how easy crossing the border would be this time, for both civilians and aid groups.

It is also unclear whether Beirut's port, which has not yet been fully rebuilt after a devastating explosion in 2020, will have sufficient capacity in the event of a wider war. Its damaged grain silos collapsed in 2022, and the country is relying on minimal food storage due to the financial crisis.

"Lebanon obviously has food and fuel reserves for two to three months, but what happens after this duration?" Al-Amin said. "We only have one airport and we cannot move things across our land borders. It would be difficult to bring items into the country."

In 2006, Hezbollah reportedly had about 15.000 rockets in its arsenal, "but more recent unofficial estimates suggest this number is almost 10 times higher," said Dina Arakji, an associate analyst at British risk consultancy Control Risks.

The group has also "acquired more advanced weaponry, including precision missiles and variants of Iranian weapons, as well as Chinese and Russian weapons," she said.

Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iranian-backed allied groups that could enter the conflict, has also significantly expanded its arsenal and drone capabilities, against which Israel's air defenses are less effective.

Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope the elusive Gaza ceasefire will bring calm to southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it will halt attacks along the border if a Gaza ceasefire is reached.