In 2014, the citizens of Scotland went to a referendum and resolutely opposed the idea of ​​independence from the United Kingdom of Great Britain, South Wales and Northern Ireland. However, the results of the latest opinion polls show that Scots more than ever support the idea of ​​leaving the Union and forming their own state.

It was announced a few weeks ago that about 52 to 54 percent of the citizens of the northern British province are firmly determined to vote for independence in a possible referendum. It is a major shift in the balance of power in the country, as in 2014 the unionists defeated the separatists by 10 percent. But in the meantime, another referendum took place in Great Britain, when the citizens voted for the Kingdom to leave the European Union. If we analyze the results of the second referendum, it can be easily concluded that with the exception of London, in all other parts of England the majority of citizens with the right to vote supported Brexit. Interestingly, in other parts of the United Kingdom, voters voted for the pro-European option, and even then it was announced that the British were forcing the Irish, Welsh and Scots out of the EU. This is exactly the main trump card of Scotland's first minister, Nicholas Sturgeon, whose Scottish Nationalist Party is expected to take a historic victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

- Scotland was forcibly removed from the European Union. We need a common market, which is seven times larger than the British - said Sturgeon recently, who hopes that after the eventual victory in the elections on May 6, she will be able to get permission from London to organize a new referendum, in which the separatists have a great chance this time.

However, Brexit is not the only reason for the dissatisfaction of the Scots with the situation in the union, because among them the policy led by the current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is very unpopular, which with its strong unionist position on the referendum seems to have a counter-effect.

Johnson gives strength to the separatists

The UK has done a great job of immunizing the population with covid-19 vaccines and the country is well on its way to returning to normal. But instead of easing the prime minister's position, he has entered a spiral of scandals from which it is difficult to get out.

His alleged statement that "he would rather look at a pile of thousands of dead bodies than close the British economy again" was first released in response to a rise in the number of infected at the beginning of the year, before the scandal of the expensive and possibly illegal one came to light. renovation of his prime minister's residence. But what really gives the popular Bo-Joe a headache is the election in Scotland, where the representatives of his Conservative Party have almost no chance in the political struggle with the representatives of the Scottish National Party.

His position on the second independence referendum was unequivocal, as he reiterated several times that he would not allow the will of the people to be re-examined in Scotland. However, if in a matter of days the nationalists, along with other pro-party parties, win a two-thirds majority in Edinburgh, Johnson is unlikely to be able to ignore calls for a referendum.

But after he managed to unite the British around Brexit, he could do the same for the next British election by sending a message to voters that he is now defending the United Kingdom.

- The road to the elections in 2024 seems distant, but without the European Union, Johnson needs a new enemy to activate his voting base. Scotland is almost perfect, as many Britons are convinced that Scots get a lot out of a common state and find their objections irritating - says Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester.

However, he believes that it would be wrong for the Prime Minister not to allow a new referendum to be called, as this would further escalate the situation and turn Scotland into hostile territory.

- This issue will probably be important in the next elections in Great Britain. And if the Scottish National Party manages to win most of Scotland's seats, then their presence in the House of Commons will be difficult to ignore. adds the professor.

The separatists promise prosperity

According to opinion polls, the Scottish National Party is an almost certain winner of the regional parliamentary elections, and it will be interesting to see the result of other political entities that clearly and unequivocally put in their program the intention to fight for the country's independence. This would mean that the pressure on official London would only increase, and if that did not help, Sturgeon announced that the Scottish Government would hold a provisional referendum on its own, which would reveal to the world the true will of the Scottish people.

The pro-separatists are reassuring the public that Scotland could be a much richer country, with a far better standard, if it regains its sovereignty. The exploitation of Scotland's natural resources would supposedly make a rich and social country like Denmark or Norway, are some of the arguments that can be read in the media these days.

The separatists are in favor of the change of mood in Brussels. In the run-up to the 2014 EU referendum, it was unequivocally stated that in the event of gaining independence, Scotland would have a long and uncertain journey to full membership in the "European family". But since Britain left the EU, European politicians have been much more sympathetic to the idea of ​​Scottish independence.

If Scotland really declares independence in a referendum, then many wonder what it will look like to break away from Britain. Leaving the EU, Article 50 of the General Accession Act was activated by London, but the current British legal treaties, which prescribe union with Scotland, have been written, negotiated and upgraded over the past few centuries, so it will be very difficult to A legal solution was found for the treaty, according to which Scotland could leave the Kingdom and declare sovereignty.

It is not difficult to assume that after the elections in Scotland, Great Britain will face great challenges.