After seven years of relative calm, conflicts have flared up again in Syria. The army loyal to the government in Damascus was in complete disarray in the first few days and faced a series of unexpected defeats at first glance. Aleppo, the country's second largest city, was lost virtually without a fight.

A large number of other settlements in the province of the same name, as well as in the districts of Hama and Idlib, had a similar fate. Clashes have reportedly resumed in Deir ez-Zor province, where US aircraft have reportedly attacked government forces clashing with local Kurdish militias.

You will hardly find a country on the planet where such hostile religious and religious groups live as Syria. Religious and ethnic diversity is at the root of the conflict that began 13 years ago, but which would hardly have escalated to such an extent were it not for the intervention of the West and the oil-rich Gulf monarchies.

About 60 percent of Syria's population is Sunni Muslim, and about 15 percent is Alawite, a religious community that follows liberal Islam close to Shiite principles.

President Bashar al-Assad belongs to the Alawites, and most of the state and military leaders come from there. About 10 percent of the Syrian population are Christians, mostly allied to the Alawites, about the same number are Kurds, three percent are a specific Muslim religious sect, the Druze, etc.

The two-year mass uprising, the loss of control over most of the territory, mass desertions in the army and police, and the flight of prominent figures such as Prime Minister Riyad Hijab, have seriously shaken the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Despite everything, his overthrow proved impossible without direct outside interference.

Where did Russia go wrong and did not fully oppose the West?

Meanwhile, leading NATO countries are abandoning a last-minute attack on Assad's forces after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier to the Tartus naval base and deployed a strong air defense force tasked with destroying planes and missiles. of NATO in Syria.

After the heterogeneous opposition against Assad collapsed in 2015 and the infamous Islamic State was established on the territory of Syria and neighboring Iraq, Russia, at the invitation of the government in Damascus, undertook a military intervention, the active phase of which will last until the end of 2017.

In addition to IS, the Russians did not spare the pro-American Syrian opposition either. At the moment when they had the full initiative, Russia and Syria decided to partially freeze the conflict. Despite the essentially brilliant Russian anti-terrorist operation, the current situation shows that Russia and the government in Damascus made a strategic political mistake by freezing the conflict, on the one hand tolerating the American occupation of Syrian oil wells, and on the other hand agreeing with Turkey on the occupation of Northern Syria.

The formal reasons why the Turkish army then entered Syria was to protect the Kurds, whom President Assad had given wide autonomy when the civil war began. Certain Kurdish factions, possibly influenced by the US, have now become open opponents of the government in Damascus, despite their sworn hostility to Turkey.

Turkey, a regional player on both sides in Syria?

In addition to opposing the Kurds in Syria, Turkey has also expanded its political influence. Pro-Turkish militias united the so-called Syrian National Army, actively trained them, supplied them with ammunition, heavy weapons, American-made M113 armored vehicles, etc.

The reasons for the disintegration of some units of Assad's army in the first week of the conflict are multiple. The military leadership in Damascus not only underestimated the strength of the opponent, but seems to have been "sleeping" for the past seven years in terms of adapting to the new conditions of waging war, above all the use of drones and means of counter-electronic warfare. 

It was with these means that the connection of the Syrian army was paralyzed, which, together with the mass strikes of kamikaze drones, led to panic and a mass escape from the defense lines.

Certain Russian media reported that the extremists were trained in the use of drones and electronic warfare by operatives of the Ukrainian military service GUR.

The war in Syria will force Russia for peace in Ukraine?

In addition to purely military reasons, there are a number of political reasons that led to the initial dispersal of Assad's forces. First, due to the needs of the war in Ukraine, Russia significantly reduced its contingent in Syria, which was followed by controversial personnel decisions.

In May, General Sergey Kiselj was appointed commander of the contingent, accused of making huge mistakes commanding the 2022st Tank Army in February XNUMX during operations in the Kharkiv region. The information that he was dismissed three days ago was published by a number of Russian sources, but this has not been officially confirmed for the time being.

In addition to the significantly smaller Russian contingent in Syria, the Wagner group is no longer there either. Apart from Wagner, the Syrian government at this moment cannot even count on the support of another group, whose contribution was invaluable – Hezbollah, which is now preoccupied with the conflict with Israel, writes Politika.

The Shia militias that came to their aid from Iraq, regardless of their experience in the war against the Islamic State, can hardly be compared to Hezbollah and Wagner in terms of their effectiveness. To all that should be added the cooling of relations between Damascus and Tehran, which, together with Russia, is Syria's only ally in previous conflicts.

Last year, Syria began to restore relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which had de facto distanced them from Iran.

However, that Iran is ready to respond positively to the demands of the Syrian government, as indicated by the extraordinary visit to Damascus by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abaz Araqchi. But, Tehran is unlikely to forget Damascus's flirtation with its regional rivals Saudi Arabia and the UAE, so they are likely to condition their support on political instruments that will permanently strengthen their presence in Syria.

Regardless of the preoccupation with the war with Ukraine, Russia will not give up its support for Bashar al-Assad, in which it has invested heavily in recent decades. There are those who believe that the new difficult situation in Syria will bring Russia closer to negotiations with Ukraine.