Whether the election "glass" is half empty or half full depends on how thirsty you are

Sasho Ordanoski. / Photo: Free Press

Judging by the late evening post-election atmosphere in the two central election headquarters - in the one of SDSM more powerful, and in VMRO-DPMNE more celebratory - the opposition will notice better results from the government in the final counting of votes.

Although the final results will have to wait for a more detailed analysis in the next day or two, 5-6 hours after the closing of the polls, the trends of the newly held local elections in Macedonia seem quite clear.

The elections were generally held in a democratic atmosphere - the opposition VMRO-DPMNE says the vote was "very positive", the government said we had "fair, free and democratic elections" - despite various "preventive" post-election enumerations of cases of alleged bribery and pressure on voters. One hour after the election, Oliver Spasovski said that only 91 election "events" were reported on election day, with no serious incidents, which is much less than in some past election times. Well-conducted elections are an important trend in stabilizing democracy in Macedonia.

The turnout exceeded 50%, which indicates considerable voting motivation, given that the official voter list includes several hundred thousand citizens who are not present in the country, so the real voter turnout in the municipalities is well over half of the registered voters. And that's a good trend.

However, due to the "drama" of the fingerprinters who significantly slowed down the voting - which was announced before the 11 million euros were spent for the procurement of the entire system, but was a condition delivered by the opposition to agree to elections at all - it is not known how much voters, nervous and tired of waiting at polling stations, eventually left without casting their ballots for any of the candidates.

What do the results say, at least those published around midnight?

There is a trend of success of the VMRO-DPMNE coalition in many municipalities, which is a "cold shower" for the SDSM coalition, especially for the cities that were considered "safe" winning combinations for "The best for my municipality", as it is, on example, Stip. In Kumanovo, on the other hand, the announcements for a fierce battle "in the ranks" of the supporters of the "left" lists and candidates were made, so the second round will require significant consolidation of that electorate, no matter which candidate (Oliver or Maxo) will finally lead The "ticket".

Both parties briefed late last night / early this morning for leadership in different, smaller and larger municipalities throughout Macedonia. In the second round, SDSM hopes to unite the "scattered" votes of its various "national" coalition partners, which will lead them to a final overall victory in this election. They themselves admit that many of their "traditional voters" have stayed at home, so it is not clear how they will be able to mobilize them for additional voting in two weeks. The fact is that the adoption of "freedom and democracy" in the country, to which Zaev is called and for which he is indisputably deserving, in these elections were not a sufficient motive for a more convincing performance of his local electoral coalition.

For example, if the victory of 12% of the local council votes for the Left is confirmed, the "wind in the back" of the Macedonian right blows strongly in their sails - and that has to do with the understanding of "freedom and democracy" in the country.

However, judging by the late evening post-election atmosphere in the two central election headquarters - in the one of SDSM more powerful, and in VMRO-DPMNE more celebratory - the opposition and in the final counting of votes hopes to see better results from the government.

With such a development and after the official results, Hristijan Mickoski's position in the party will become undisputed in the run-up to the local party congress. Zaev's pre-election optimism, unfulfilled after the first round of voting, will call into question his party charisma, which will be reflected in the second round of voting in many municipalities where there will be a final re-run. Such is the case with the City of Skopje: the winner will be sought in the second round, everyone's current leadership may be called into question.

The official confirmation of the victory in the first round of the vice president of the Alliance for Albanians Arben Taravari in Gostivar (and, by the way, probably in Debar), is a painful voting message for DUI, regardless of their leadership in other "Albanian" municipalities, because the party of Ali Ahmeti threw everything he had from his party capacity behind his candidate Nevzat Bejta. However, judging by everything, in the Albanian "camp" DUI remains to be the leading factor among the Albanian ethnic voters in the country, which will strengthen their position in the ruling coalition at the national level.

Therefore, Macedonia, locally, voted, and the results confirm the dominant division of citizens between the left and right bloc in the country, it seems, without significant political influence of the numerous independent candidates in these elections. For that, however, we will have to wait for the counting of the won votes on the councilor lists, because in many of the councilors in the municipalities there should be representatives of smaller parties or those of the independents.

The "cheerful math" of interpreting the half-empty or half-full "glass" of election results will continue in the coming days. In fact, in many places a second round of voting follows, so the final winner will be known in two weeks.

But, as things stand now, VMRO-DPMNE is well on its way to demanding even more snap parliamentary elections next year. Although Mickoski did not fail to "return" to Zaev last night that a new parliamentary majority is an acceptable option, without early elections, for the return of VMRO-DPMNE to power.

However, the history, which knocked on our door locally, yesterday, will have to be (completed) in two weeks at the earliest.

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