The formation of a new government in Austria is back on track after coalition talks between the FPO and the OVP collapsed on Wednesday. FPO leader Herbert Kickl returned the mandate to form a government after meeting with President Alexander Van der Bellen in the Hofburg. Various scenarios are now being considered, from resuming red-black talks between the OVP and the Social Democrats, to forming a government of experts, to new elections.

Even when the collapse of the right-wing parties' negotiations was foreshadowed, the SPO called on the OVP to return to negotiations.

– We are facing a historic situation. The good of the state must come before the good of the party, and the SPO is ready to take responsibility. Our hand is extended. It is up to the OVP to accept it – said Vienna Mayor Michael Ludwig.

The mayor's statement sends a signal to potential coalition partners that there are others in the SPO who want to negotiate, not just party leader Andreas Babler, who was pointed out by the OVP and the NEOS party as responsible for the collapse of the negotiations in the first round.

NEOC leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger, who in January broke off the tripartite talks, blaming the SPO leader for the collapse of the talks, has brought her party back into the game. The NEOC leader recalled that the red-black coalition (OVP-SPO) has a majority in parliament. Such a coalition would be supported by NEOC on the points already agreed upon, but also beyond. The Greens have already shown that they are ready to enter into negotiations in order to be included in the government.

It is not clear who would lead the negotiations for a possible red-black coalition. The head of the OVP, Christian Stocker, was chosen to lead the negotiations with the FPO and to be vice-chancellor in the blue-black coalition. This does not automatically mean that he would be the OVP's candidate for chancellor after the collapse of the FPO talks. For the OVP, this new round of negotiations with the smaller parties would mean that as the strongest of the three parties, it could appoint the chancellor. President Van der Bellen would probably not be unhappy with this option, as he advocates a "secure majority government".

The formation of an expert government is also possible, since the Constitution gives the president freedom in appointing the chancellor. In 2019, after the collapse of the blue-black coalition, there was an expert government led by Supreme Court Justice Brigitte Bierlein. An expert government, however, has the same problem as a minority government – ​​it lacks a stable majority in the National Council. More realistically, it does not have MPs from any party on its side, and for political reforms it would have to constantly seek support from a majority. Such a government could be a temporary solution, but not a long-term one.

If no solution is found to form a government, the only option for Austria is new elections. The head of the FPO, Herbert Kickl, has no problem with that, as he often emphasizes. After all, his party is significantly higher in the polls than it achieved in the last parliamentary elections, and it is also financially well prepared for a new election campaign. However, the poll results can change quickly, especially if some parties choose new and perhaps more attractive top candidates.

In the Greens, a quick change at the top is already planned. Party leader Werner Kogler has already mentioned three names for his successor – ministers Leonore Gewesler and Alma Zadić, as well as state councilor Stefan Kander. In the OVP, the question also arises: who could lead the party as the top candidate in the new elections? Christian Stocker has minimal chances. Shortly before the OVP entered negotiations with the FPO, the name of former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz was even speculated.

Regardless of who leads the parties in the election campaign, new elections require considerable time to prepare, even if the necessary majority in the National Council for an appropriate decision is found. Considering the parliamentary procedure and legal deadlines for elections, they could be held at the beginning of June at the earliest.